A tight center of circulation consolidated in Tropical Depression Three-E and it intensified on Thursday.  It is now designated as Tropical Storm Carlos.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 100.4°W which put it about 170 miles (270 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico and about 235 miles (380 km) south-southeast of Zihuatanejo.  Carlos was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (4 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were gusts to 70 m.p.h. (115 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Zihuatanejo.

Although a tight circulation developed at the center of Carlos, it is still not fully organized.  Thunderstorms are developing mainly to the south of the core of the circulation.  Some spiral bands are beginning to form in the outer part of Carlos.  However, there are not as many thunderstorms in the northern half of the circulation which may be an indication that some drier air from Mexico could be getting pulled into the circulation.   Carlos is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C and there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  An upper level ridge over Mexico is generating northeasterly winds over the top of Carlos and the vertical wind shear is inhibiting the development of the tropical storm.  An upper level trough moving southward over the Gulf of Mexico could weaken the ridge for a day or two.  That could reduce the wind shear and allow Carlos to intensify into a hurricane.

As the upper level trough weakens the ridge, the steering currents will remain weak and Carlos could move slowly toward the coast of Mexico.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen over the weekend and if that happens it will steer Carlos toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track, Carlos will approach and then move parallel to the coast of Mexico.  Most of the guidance from numerical models keeps Carlos off the coast during the next few days, but it could get close enough to bring some wind to the coast.  That is the reason why the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast.