Tropical Storm Carlos moved very little on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 100.6°W which put it about 160 miles (255 km) south-southwest of Acapulco and about 250 miles (405 km) south-southeast of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.  Carlos was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were gusts to 70 m.p.h. (115 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The intensity of Carlos changed little on Friday and the organization of the circulation fluctuated during the day.  The core of the circulation exhibited greater organization during the afternoon when more thunderstorms developed near the center.  Carlos remains over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  At times it appears as though Carlos may be pulling in some sinking drier air from Mexico, because most of the thunderstorms are developing in the southern portion of the circulation.  An upper level ridge north of Carlos is generating some northeasterly winds that are affecting the outflow on the northern side of the tropical storm.  However, an upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico may be enhancing some upper level divergence on the eastern side of the storm.  If Carlos were to remain stationary for several more days, its winds would mix up cooler water.  Carlos should not have as big an effect on the SSTs as Blanca did when it was stationary, because Carlos is weaker than Blanca was.  The intensity forecast is highly uncertain because the SSTs are favorable for intensification, but drier air and vertical wind shear would tend to inhibit strengthening.  The most likely outcome is modest intensification during the weekend.

The interaction of the upper ridge over Mexico and the upper low over the Gulf of Mexico is creating a zone of weak steering winds near Carlos, which is the reason it has been stationary.  Eventually, during the weekend, the upper ridge is expected to move eastward and begin to steer Carlos toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Carlos is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, but it is expected to move parallel to the coast.  Any deviation of the track to the east could bring the center very near the coast of Mexico.