An eye developed in the center of Carlos and the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to a hurricane.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 100.0°W which put it about 120 miles (190 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico and about 240 miles (390 km) southeast of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.  Carlos was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (4 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h) and there were gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.3.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 23.0.  These indices suggest that Carlos is capable of producing regional serious wind damage.  The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Tucpan de Galeana.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado.

The circulation near the center of Carlos is more well organized than it was 12 hours ago and an eye is clearly apparent on visible satellite imagery.  The hurricane appears to still be pulling in some drier air from Mexico because there is a gap on the northern side of the eyewall.  However, the drier air is less of a factor than it was on Friday.  Carlos is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  At some point it’s lack of movement will cause its winds to mix cooler water to the surface but that has not happened yet.  An upper level ridge located to the north of Carlos is generating some easterly winds near the top of the hurricane, but upper level divergence has increased since yesterday.  The upper level divergence is pumping out mass, which is allowing the surface pressure to decrease and Carlos to strengthen.  Drier air and modest vertical wind shear will slow the intensification of Carlos, but the hurricane should get stronger in the short term while it remains over warm SSTs.

A combination of the upper level ridge north of Carlos and an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico is creating a zone of weak steering winds near Carlos, which is why it has moved so little.  Later this weekend the upper level low is forecast to move away and the ridge will move northeast of the hurricane.  The change in position will cause Carlos to move toward the northwest.  Most of the guidance from numerical models keep the center of Carlos west of the coast of Mexico, but some models are now bringing it much closer to land.  The change in the guidance prompted the issuance of new watches and warnings for portions of the Mexican coast.