Tag Archives: 13E

Tropical Storm Lorena Forms, Watch Issued for Mexico

Tropical Storm Lorena formed south of Mexico on Tuesday and a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for a portion of the coast.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 100.4°W which put it about 275 miles (440 km) south-southeast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed in a cluster of thunderstorms south of Mexico on Tuesday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Lorena.  The circulation around Lorena was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were curling around the western side of the center of circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level ridge over Mexico was producing northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they may have been the reason why the bands were stronger in the western half of  Tropical Storm Lorena.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause some vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  The shear is likely to slow the rate at which Tropical Storm Lorena intensifies.  Lorena could move near the west coast of Mexico.  If the center moves near the coast, then the circulation could draw some drier air into the tropical storm.  The drier would likely cause Tropical Storm Lorena to weaken.  If the center of Lorena remains west of the coast of Mexico, then it could strengthen into a hurricane later this week.

A ridge over Mexico will steer Tropical Storm Lorena toward the northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Lorena could be near the west coast of Mexico by Wednesday night.  That is the reason the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for that portion of the coast.  Lorena could approach Baja California in four or five days.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Kiko was weakening slowly well east of Hawaii and Tropical Depression Fourteen-E developed south of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 125.0°W which put it about 1060 miles (1705 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 108.2°W which put it about 720 miles (1235 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  it was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Hurricane Kiko Strengthens to Cat. 4

Hurricane Kiko strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 121.1°W which put it about 835 miles (1340 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Kiko remained well organized.  A circular eye with a diameter of 24 miles (39 km) was at the center of Kiko.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Kiko.  Kiko remained a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km).

Hurricane Kiko will move through an environment capable of supporting a major hurricane for another day or two.  Kiko move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the winds are blowing from the east at all levels and there is little vertical wind shear.  Sinking motion on the south side of a subtropical high pressure system north of Kiko could transport some drier air toward the hurricane.  Hurricane Kiko could be near its peak intensity, but it is likely to remain a powerful hurricane for several more days.

The subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will steer Hurricane Kiko toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Kiko will move away from Baja California and in the general direction of Hawaii.

Kiko Rapidly Intensifies Into Hurricane Southwest of Baja California

Former Tropical Storm Kiko rapidly intensified into a hurricane southwest of Baja California on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 119.3°W which put it about 730 miles (1175 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Kiko strengthened rapidly on Saturday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 24 miles (39 km) developed at the center of Kiko.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Kiko.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  The circulation around Kiko was small, but symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Hurricane Kiko will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Kiko will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the winds at all levels are blowing from the east.  So, there will little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Kiko is will intensify further and it could strengthen into a major hurricane.

Hurricane Kiko will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Kiko toward the west.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Kiko will move away from Baja California and toward Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Kiko Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Kiko formed south of Baja California on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 112.2°W which put it about 495 miles (795 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A distinct center of circulation developed in a cluster of thunderstorms south of Baja California on Thursday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Kiko.  The circulation around Kiko was still organizing.  The center of circulation was evident on satellite imagery.  Band of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.  Storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Kiko will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Kiko will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Kiko is likely to strengthen into a hurricane.  Kiko could intensify more rapidly once an eye and eyewall form in the inner core of the tropical storm.

Tropical Cyclone Kiko will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Kiko toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kiko will move farther away from Baja California.

Hurricane Hector Passes South of Hawaii

Powerful Hurricane Hector passed south of Hawaii on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Hector was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 156.8°W which put it about 325 miles (525 km) south-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Hector was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Hector remained circular and symmetrical.  Information from radar and satellites indicated that Hurricane Hector had a double eyewall structure.  There was a small inner eye surrounded by an inner eyewall.  The inner eyewall was thin and it appeared to be weakening.  A clear area, sometimes called a moat, surrounded the inner eyewall.  A second thicker eyewall surrounded the moat.  Several shorter bands of of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hector.  The circulation of Hurricane Hector was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 95 miles (155 km) from the center.

Hurricane Hector exhibited a structure that is sometimes called an annular hurricane.  Annular hurricanes often achieve an equilibrium with their environment which can persist for days if there is not much wind shear.  Hector will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is between 27°C and 28°C.  It will move through a region where there is little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Hector will remain a strong hurricane and it could strengthen during the next 24 to 48 hours, if the inner eyewall dissipates completely.

Hurricane Hector will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Central Pacific.  The high will steer Hector toward the west for several more days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Hector will remain south of Hawaii.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane John weakened west of Baja California and Tropical Storm Kristy exhibited little change on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane John was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 114.4°W which put it about 285 miles (460 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  John was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 130.0°W which put it about 1410 miles (2220 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Hurricane John Absorbs Ileana, Tropical Storm Kristy Forms

The much stronger and larger circulation of Hurricane John absorbed the smaller and weaker Tropical Storm Ileana south of Baja California on Tuesday morning, while Tropical Storm Kristy formed farther west over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane John was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 110.5°W which put it about 295 miles (470 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  John was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane John is well organized.  A circular eye is at the center of circulation.  A ring of stronger thunderstorms wraps around the eye.  The strongest storms are in the eastern half of the ring and that is where the strongest winds are occurring.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane John.  The strongest bands are south and east of the center of circulation.  The bands north and west of the center are weaker and there is cooler water in that area.  Storms around the core of the circulation are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane John will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  John will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak.  Hurricane John could intensify on lWednesday and it has a chance to strengthen into a major hurricane.  John will start to move over cooler water in 24 to 36 hours and it will start to weaken when that happens.

Hurricane John will move around the western side of a ridge in the middle troposphere.  The ridge will steer John toward the northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane John will pass west of Baja California.  Rainbands north of the center of Hurricane John could drop locally heavy rain over parts of Baja California and there will be a risk of flash floods.  Hurricane John could push higher surf along the west coast of Baja California toward southern California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific, Tropical Storm Kristy formed southwest of Hurricane John on Tuesday morning.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 127.1°W which put it about 1290 miles (2080 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.  There is much uncertainty about whether or not the circulation of Tropical Storm Kristy will be affected by the circulation of Hurricane John.

Kenneth Rapidly Intensifies Into a Hurricane

One time Tropical Storm Kenneth rapidly intensified into a hurricane on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Kenneth was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 128.4°W which put it about 1290 miles (2075 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kenneth was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

The structure of Hurricane Kenneth improved significantly during the past few hours.  A small circular eye emerged at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds are occurring in this ring of thunderstorms.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms intensified south and east of the center.  Thunderstorms near the core of Kenneth were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane Kenneth will continue to move through an environment favorable for intensification on Monday.  Kenneth will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28.5°C.  Hurricane Kenneth is moving through a region where the winds in the upper levels are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Kenneth could continue to intensify for another 12 to 24 hours.  The speed of the upper level winds could increase in a day or so, and more vertical wind shear would inhibit intensification.  Eventually Hurricane Kenneth will move over cooler SSTs and start to weaken.

Kenneth if moving south of a subtropical ridge which is steering the hurricane toward the west.  The ridge is forecast to continue to steer Kenneth westward for another 12 to 24 hours.  Hurricane Kenneth will turn toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Kenneth would pose no direct threat to land.

Tropical Storm Kenneth Develops Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Kenneth developed southwest of Baja California on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 119.1°W which put it about 810 miles (1305 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kenneth was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A distinct center of circulation developed in a tropical wave southwest of Baja California on Friday.  Thunderstorms began to form near the center and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Kenneth, which was the 11th named tropical storm to form over the Eastern North Pacific during 2017.

A cluster of thunderstorms formed near the core of Tropical Storm Kenneth on Friday.  Even after thunderstorms formed near the core, the circulation of Tropical Storm Kenneth was asymmetrical.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed in the western half of the circulation.  The bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.  Thunderstorms near the core of Kenneth were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Kenneth will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Kenneth will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  An upper level ridge to the north of Tropical Storm Kenneth is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are producing moderate vertical wind shear which is probably the cause of the asymmetrical circulation of the tropical storm.  Even though there is moderate vertical wind shear, Tropical Storm Kenneth is likely to intensify and it could become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical Storm Kenneth is begin steered toward the west by a subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical storm.  The subtropical ridge will continue to steer Tropical Storm Kenneth toward the west-northwest for another day or two.  When Tropical Storm Kenneth reaches the western end of the subtropical ridge, it will turn more toward the north.

Hurricane Lester Passing North of Hawaii

Hurricane Lester passed north of Hawaii on Saturday.  All Hurricane Watches were cancelled, although the surf on the north coasts of the islands should be increased by the waves generated by Hurricane Lester.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Lester was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 155.4°W which put it about 175 miles (285 km) east-northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Lester was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Hurricane Lester weakened slowly on Saturday as it moved north of the Hawaiian Islands.  An upper level trough northwest of Lester produced southwesterly winds that blew across the top of the hurricane.  The vertical wind shear tilted the circulation toward the northeast with height.  The wind shear also inhibited the upper level divergence to the south of the center of Lester.  Less upper level divergence meant that the hurricane could not pump out as much mass and the surface pressure slowly rose.

Hurricane Lester is moving through an environment that is likely to weaken it further.  Lester is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is 27°C.  So, there is enough energy to support the hurricane.  However, the upper level trough will continue to create vertical wind shear and the shear will continue to weaken Hurricane Lester.

Hurricane Lester is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering toward the west-northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  When Hurricane Lester gets farther north the westerlies in the middle latitudes will turn it toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lester will stay north of the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane Watch Issued for Hawaii as Hurricane Lester Moves Closer

As Hurricane Lester moved steadily closer to Hawaii on Thursday, a Hurricane Watch was issued for Hawaii County and Maui County including Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe.

At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Lester was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 145.4°W which put it about 640 miles (1030 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Lester was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

The symmetrical circulation of Hurricane Lester is very well organized.  There is a circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km).  A ring of strong thunderstorms completely surrounds the eye.  Multiple spiral rainbands are rotating around periphery of the circulation.  Hurricane Lester is generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass out in all directions.

Hurricane Lester is currently moving through a favorable environment.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Lester will be moving over some of the same water that Hurricane Madeline passed over a few days ago.  If Madeline stirred any cooler water to the surface, it could cause Hurricane Lester to weaken.  When Hurricane Lester gets closer to Hawaii an upper level trough will produce stronger upper level southwesterly winds and the wind shear will increase.  Lester should weaken as it gets closer to Hawaii.

A subtropical ridge has been steering Hurricane Lester toward the west.  The western end of the ridge is expected to weaken and that will cause Lester to move more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipate track Hurricane Lester could approach Hawaii on Saturday morning.