Tag Archives: Boca de Catan

Tropical Storm Watches Issued for South Texas and Northern Mexico

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for parts of the coast of south Texas and northern Mexico on Monday afternoon. A low pressure system over the Bay of Campeche was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 93.2°W which put it about 380 miles (615 km) southeast of La Pesca, Mexico and about 470 miles (755 km) southeast of Brownsville, Texas. The low pressure system was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor, Texas to Boca de Catan, Mexico.

A large low pressure system formed over the Bay of Campeche on Monday. The low pressure system did not exhibit the usual structural features of a tropical cyclone. So, the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Since the low pressure system has the potential to develop into a tropical storm, Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the coast of southern Texas and northern Mexico.

The large low pressure system did not have a well defined, distinct low level center of circulation. There were few thunderstorms in the broad region around the middle of the low pressure system. The surface winds were relatively weak near the middle of the low pressure system. The strongest winds were occurring in a band of thunderstorms about 285 miles (460 km) northeast of the middle of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Some winds in that area were blowing at tropical storm force. Elsewhere in the low pressure system, the winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge centered near the Yucatan Peninsula. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone One could develop into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. A distinct low level center of circulation would have to form. Thunderstorms would have to develop and to persist near the low level center. The strongest winds would need to occur near the low level center of circulation in order for Potential Tropical Cyclone One to be classified as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move around the northeastern part of a large counterclockwise circulation call a Central American Gyre (CAG). The Central American Gyre will steer the low pressure system toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. A strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S. will turn the low pressure system toward the west-northwest on Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One could approach the coast of northern Mexico or southern Texas on Wednesday evening.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One could be a tropical storm when it approaches the coast. That is the reason the Tropical Storm Watches were issued. Even if Potential Tropical Cyclone One does not develop into a tropical storm, it will drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas. The low pressure system could also cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter) where the winds blow the water toward the coast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Prompts Tropical Storm Warnings for Texas and Mexico

A weather system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four on Friday afternoon and Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for portions of the coasts of Texas and Mexico. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 94.5°W which put it about 400 miles (640 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield, Texas to Boca de Catan, Mexico.

A weather system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico exhibited more organization on Friday. However, observations from a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane on Friday afternoon indicated that there was not a well defined center of low level circulation in the weather system. The National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four in order to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of South Texas. The government of Mexico also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Mexico.

More thunderstorms developed in Potential Tropical Cyclone Four on Friday afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation appeared to be organizing into bands. The thunderstorms in Potential Tropical Cyclone Four began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the weather system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 30˚C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in that region and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours. A well defined low level center of circulation will have to develop in order for the system to become a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Four toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will make landfall south of Brownsville, Texas during Saturday night. It will bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds to South Texas and northern Mexico. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.