Tag Archives: Tropcial Storm Earl

Tropical Storm Earl Intensifies North of the Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Earl intensified north of the Virgin Islands on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 65.3°W which put it about 215 miles (345 km) north-northwest of St. Thomas. Earl was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane found that Tropical Storm Earl had intensified during a reconnaissance flight on Monday morning. Even though the circulation around Tropical Storm Earl was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Earl’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms in the eastern half of Earl generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Earl’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Earl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near the Bahamas. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ear;’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Earl could continue to intensify slowly. The upper level winds are forecast to weaken in a day or so, and Earl is likely to intensify to a hurricane when that happens.

Tropical Storm Earl will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Earl toward the north during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Earl will move farther away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Earl could approach Bermuda by the end of the week.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Danielle started to weaken west of the Azores. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Danielle was located at latitude 40.2°N and longitude 43.9°W which put it about 915 miles (1475 km) west-northwest of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Hurricane Danielle Starts to Move Northeast

Hurricane Danielle started to move toward the northeast on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Danielle was located at latitude 39.0°N and longitude 44.7°W which put it about 955 miles (1540 km) west of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

After being nearly stationary over the North Atlantic west of the Azores during much of the weekend, Hurricane Danielle finally started to move toward the northeast on Sunday night. Danielle strengthened on Sunday. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Hurricane Danielle. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Danielle’s circulation. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Danielle. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Danielle will move through an environment capable of supporting a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Danielle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak on Monday and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Danielle could get a little stronger during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the North Atlantic Ocean will approach Danielle from the west on later on Monday. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Danielle will move over cooler water on Tuesday. The combination of more vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Hurricane Danielle to begin a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the North Atlantic Ocean will steer Hurricane Danielle toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Hurricane Danielle will pass north of the Azores later this week. Danielle could eventually affect the weather in Western Europe as an extratropical cyclone.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Earl was spinning north of the Virgin Islands. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 65.4°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) north-northwest of St. Thomas. Earl was moving toward the northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.