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Tropical Storm Maliksi Forms East of Luzon, Ewiniar Brings Rain to South China.

Tropical Storm Maliksi formed east of Luzon on Thursday while Tropical Storm Ewiniar brought rain to parts of South China.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Maliksi was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 127.7°E which put it about 330 miles (535 km) east of Luzon.  Maliksi was moving toward the north at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The Japan Meteorological Agency designated an area of low pressure east of Luzon as Tropical Storm Maliksi late on Thursday.  There was a large counterclockwise circulation east of Luzon, but there were few thunderstorms near the center of the circulation.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in three bands in the outer portions of the circulation.  One band was located well to the west of the center of circulation, a second band was located well to the north of the center and the third band was located well to the east of the center.  The winds to tropical storm force were occurring in those bands.

Tropical Storm Maliksi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Maliksi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Maliksi will move underneath an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The large circulation will be the primary factor inhibiting intensification in the short term.  Maliksi will intensify slowly until thunderstorms develop near the center of circulation and the strongest winds occur closer to the center.

Tropical Storm Maliksi will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Maliksi slowly toward the north.  When Tropical Storm Maliksi moves farther to the north westerly winds will begin to steer it toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Maliksi will remain east of Luzon.  The circulation of Maliksi is so large that rainbands on the western side of the circulation could affect the northern Philippines.

Elsewhere over the western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Ewiniar brought heavy rain to parts of South China.  Ewiniar made landfall on the coast of China near Yangjiang on Thursday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ewiniar was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 112.1°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) northeast of Yangjiang, China.  Ewiniar was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The center of Tropical Storm Ewiniar was moving farther inland over South China.  The winds to tropical storm force were occurring in rainbands that were still over the South China Sea.  Ewiniar was dropping heavy rain over parts of western Guangdong province and over southern Zizhiqu province.  The heavy rain could cause flooding in those areas.

Tropical Storm Ewiniar Forms Near Coast of South China

Tropical Storm Ewiniar formed near the coast of South China late on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ewiniar was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 110.5°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of Zhanjiang, China.  Ewiniar was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation consolidated in a cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving over the South China Sea near Hainan Island on Monday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Ewiniar.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms developed west of the center of circulation.  Bands east of the center consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force were occurring within 60 miles (95 km) of the center o circulation.

Tropical Storm Ewiniar has 12 to 24 hours during which it could intensify if the center remains over water.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water near the coast of South China is about 30°C.  Ewiniar is under the southwestern portion of a narrow upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing weak southerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Even though the atmospheric and oceanic environments are favorable for intensification, a portion of the circulation of Tropical Storm Ewiniar is already over land.  The friction caused by the flow of air over the land will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Ewiniar could intensify a little more if the center remains over water.

The upper level ridge was steering Tropical Storm Ewiniar toward the northwest.  A general motion toward the north is expected for the next 24 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Ewiniar will move near the east coast of the Leizhou Peninsula.  Ewiniar could move inland near Wuchuan and Dianbai.  Tropical Storm Ewiniar will bring some gust winds to South China, but the greater risks are the potential for heavy rain and floods.

Tropical Storm Nanmadol Nearing Kyushu

Tropical Storm Nanmadol was quickly nearing Kyushu on Monday.  At 1:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Nanmadol was located at latitude 31.0°N and longitude 127.4°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) southwest of Sasebo, Japan.  Nanmadol was moving toward the north-northeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

The structure of Tropical Storm Nanmadol was still consistent with its designation of a tropical cyclone, but there were signs that it could be about to start the transition to an extratropical cyclone.  There was a core of thunderstorms around the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the inner core which extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center.  Several rainbands were on the eastern side of the circulation.  There were far fewer showers and thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation.  There were some indications that Nanmadol could be pulling cooler, drier, more stable air into the western side of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Nanmadol has probably reached its maximum intensity and it is likely to weaken during the next two days.  Nanmadol is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  However, it has reached the upper level westerly in the middle latitudes and the vertical wind shear is increasing.  Nanmadol will weaken faster when it moves across Japan.

The westerly winds in the middle latitudes have turned Tropical Storm Nanmadol toward the north-northeast.  As Nanmadol moves farther north, the speed of the westerlies will increase and the tropical storm is forecast to move quickly toward the east-northeast across southern Japan.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Nanmadol will reach Kyushu in a few hours.  Nanmadol will also move over Shikoku and Honshu.  Tropical Storm Nanmadol will bring a brief period of gusty winds and the potential for locally heavy rain when it moves across southern Japan.

Tropical Storm Nanmadol Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Ryukyu Islands

Tropical Storm Nanmadol brought wind and rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Nanmadol was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 124.7°E which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of Ishigaki, Japan.  Nanmadol was moving toward the north-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The core of Tropical Storm Nanmadol continued to organize on Sunday.  A ring of thunderstorms wrapped tightly around the center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed outside the core.  Thunderstorms were beginning to generate more upper level divergence which was pumping out mass in all directions.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Nanmadol was fairly small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Tropical Storm Nanmadol will be in an environment that is very favorable for intensification for about another 24 hours.  Nanmadol will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Nanmadol is underneath the center of an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are very weak.  Warm SSTs and almost no vertical wind shear will permit Tropical Storm Nanmadol to intensify during the next day and there could be a period of rapid intensification.  Nanmadol could strengthen into a typhoon before it reaches a less favorable environment.  The tropical storm will move over cooler SSTs and it will move into an area of stronger upper level westerly winds in a couple of days.  Nanmadol will begin to weaken when that happens.

Tropical Storm Nanmadol is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the north.  A general northward motion is expected to continue for about another 24 hours.  Nanmadol will reach the westerly winds in the middle latitudes in about a day and those winds will turn it toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Nanmadol will pass west of Okinawa.  Nanmadol could approach Kyushu in about 36 hours.  Tropical Storm Nanmadol will continue to cause gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the southern Ryukyu Islands for another 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Nanmadol Forms Southeast of Taiwan

Tropical Storm Nanmadol formed southeast of Taiwan on Saturday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Nanmadol was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 127.1°E which put it about 475 miles (765 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Nanmadol was moving toward the northwest at 24 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A center of circulation consolidated rapidly on Saturday in an area of thunderstorms southeast of Taiwan.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the northern and western side of the circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms developed in the northern half of the circulation.  The thunderstorms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which pumped out mass to the north of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Nanmadol will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nanmadol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge northeast of Nanmadol is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the tropical storm, but there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Nanmadol is likely to intensify on Sunday.  When Nanmadol moves farther north, it will move over cooler water and it will be effected by the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Nanmadol to start to weaken at that time.

Tropical Storm Nanmadol is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it quickly toward the northwest.  Nanmadol will move in a general north-northwesterly direction on Sunday.  It will turn toward the northeast in 24 to 36 hours when it begins to be steered by the mid-latitude westerlies.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nanmadol could approach the southernmost Ryukyu Islands including Ishigaki Jima in about 12 hours.  The center is expected to pass west of Okinawa.  Tropical Storm Nanmadol could approach Kyushu in a couple of days.  An intensifying Tropical Storm Nanmadol will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southernmost Ryukyu Islands.

Tropical Storm Earl Nearing Southern Bay of Campeche

Tropical Storm Earl was maintaining its intensity as it approached the southern Bay of Campeche on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 91.7°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km/h) south-southeast of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.  Earl was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Ciudad del Carmen to Laguna Verde.

Despite moving over land for almost 24 hours the structure of Tropical Storm Earl retained much of its integrity.  A primary rainband wrapped around three quarters of the way around the southern and eastern portions of the center center.  A weather station at Ciudad del Carmen reported wind gusts to tropical storm force.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Earl is still generating upper level divergence, especially to the east of Earl.  The upper level divergence pumped out enough mass to allow the surface pressure to remain near 1000 mb.

The center of Tropical Storm Earl could move near the southern Bay of Campeche on Friday morning.  The Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C in that part of the Bay of Campeche.  If Earl moves along the coast, it is likely to maintain tropical storm intensity for another 24 to 36 hours.  If the center of Earl moves out over the southern Bay of Campeche it could intensify given the organization that still exists in the tropical storm.

A ridge of high pressure is steering Tropical Storm Earl toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Earl could be near Veracruz, Mexico in another 24 hours.  The primary risk associated with Tropical Storm Earl is heavy rain and flooding.  Tropical Storm Earl is still causing heavy rain over parts of Mexico, Honduras and Belize.  However, Earl could also generate some storm surge along portions of the southern Bay of Campeche.

Tropical Storm Mirinae Bringing Wind and Heavy Rain to Vietnam

Tropical Storm Mirinae is bringing wind and heavy rain as it moves inland over northern Vietnam.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm MIrinae was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 105.6°E which put it about 45 miles (70 km) south of Hanoi, Vietnam.  Mirinae was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

As it moved over the Gulf of Tongking, Tropical Storm Mirinae intensified rapidly during the final few hours before it made landfall on the coast of northern Vietnam.  Microwave and infrared satellite imagery indicates that an eye developed in the center of circulation and a circular ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  Tropical Storm Mirinae may have been near typhoon intensity at the time it made landfall.

Tropical Storm Mirinae has weakened somewhat as it moved inland over northern Vietnam.  However, it does still exhibit a very well organized, circular structure.  The upper level divergence has been more impressive than it has been at any time during the existence of Mirinae.  The strongest winds are occurring near the core of the tropical storm and in rainbands over the open water of the Gulf of Tongking.  Mirinae will gradually weaken further as the circulation spins down over land.

Tropical Storm Mirinae will produce very heavy rain as it moves across northern Vietnam toward northern Laos.  The rapid intensification and improved structure of Mirinae mean that the rain will be heavier and will continue for a longer period.  Heavy, persistent rainfall will create the potential for serious flash flooding.

Tropical Storm Mirinae Moving Over Hainan Island

A defined center of circulation developed within a cluster of thunderstorms that moved west of the Philippines on Tuesday and the system was designated Tropical Storm Mirinae.  Tropical Storm Mirinae is now moving over Hainan Island and it is bringing heavy rain to the southern portion of the island.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Mirinae was located at latitude 19.3°N and 109.4°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) south-southwest of Haikou, China.  Mirinae was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (90 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

An upper level ridge over Asia is producing northeasterly winds which are blowing over the top of Tropical Storm Mirinae.  The moderate vertical wind shear is causing most of the strong thunderstorms to be located in the southern half of the tropical storm.  Those thunderstorms are generating upper level divergence to the south of the center of circulation, but the northeasterly winds are inhibiting the motion of air trying to diverge to the north of Mirinae.

Tropical Storm MIrinae is in an environment that is not overly favorable for intensification.  It is moving over Hainan Island and increased surface friction will slow the circulation.  The moderate vertical wind shear is also a negative factor.  However, when the center of circulation moves west of Hainan Island, it will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  So, some re-intensifcation could occur before Tropical Storm MIrinae makes landfall in Asia.

A subtropical ridge northeast of MIrinae is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Mirinae will move over the Gulf of Tongking in a few hours.  The center of Tropical Storm Mirinae could reach the coast of northern Vietnam in about 24 hours.

MIrinae is a minimal tropical storm and it is not likely to intensify a great deal.  Heavy rain and floods are the primary risks associated with Tropical Storm Mirinae.  The heaviest rain is likely to fall near and south of the center of circulation.