Tag Archives: 15E

Tropical Storm Lorena Brings Rain to Northwestern Mexico

Tropical Storm Lorena brought rain to parts of northwestern Mexico on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday was located at latitude 27.6°N and longitude 111.2°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km/h) southwest of Guaymas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gust to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad, Mexico.

Former Hurricane Lorena weakened on Saturday as it moved northward across the Gulf of California.  The inner core of Lorena was disrupted on Saturday morning when the eye moved near the southern tip of Baja California.  An upper level trough over the southwestern U.S. produced strong southwesterly winds which caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear inhibited the development of new thunderstorms while Tropical Storm Lorena moved over the warm water in the Gulf of California.  By Saturday night the strongest thunderstorms were occurring just to the northeast of the center circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will make landfall on the west coast of Mexico near Guaymas on Saturday night.  Lorena will move northward over Sonora toward Hermosillo after it make landfall.  Tropical Storm Lorena is a small storm and it will weaken rapidly when it moves inland.  Lorena will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Sonora.  The locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Lorena Near Cabo San Lucas

Hurricane Lorena moved near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Lorena was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 109.3°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Puerto Cortes, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Santa Rosalia.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect from Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro and from La Paz to Santa Rosalia.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect from Topolobampo to Guaymas and from Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito.

The circulation around Hurricane Lorena strengthened quickly when it reached the very warm water at the southern end of the Gulf of Calfiornia.  A small circular eye developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the compact inner core of Hurricane Lorena.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The future intensity of Hurricane Lorena will depend entirely on its track.  If Hurricane Lorena moves over Baja California, it will weaken quickly when it moves over the mountains.  However, if the small circulation around Lorena remains over the very warm water in the Gulf of California, then the hurricane could strengthen further.  The numerical models have been trending toward keeping Hurricane Lorena over water for a longer period of time, but the center of the hurricane is very close to the southern end of Baja California.

Hurricane Lorena moved into a region where the steering currents are weak, which is why Lorena is nearly stationary.  The southern end of a trough over the western U.S. will try to steer Hurricane Lorena toward the north-northeast.  However, mountains in Baja California sometimes block westerly winds in the lower levels.  A slightly larger circulation around Tropical Storm Mario could pull Hurricane Lorena toward the west.  The future track of Hurricane Lorena is highly uncertain.  Hurricane Lorena could move over Baja California or it could move farther north into the Gulf of California.

The center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 110.0°W which put it about 340 miles (545 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.  The future of Tropical Storm Mario will depend on how much its circulation interacts with the circulation around Hurricane Lorena.  Mario is currently about 350 miles (565 km) south of Hurricane Lorena.

Tropical Storm Lorena Moves Toward Baja California

Tropical Storm Lorena moved toward Baja California on Thursday night after brushing the west coast of Mexico earlier in the day.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Puerto Cortes, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect from La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect from San Evaristo to Loreto and from Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Evaristo.

When the center of former Hurricane Lorena passed near the west coast of Mexico, the eastern part of the circulation passes over mountains.  The mountains disrupted the flow of air and some drier air was pulled into the hurricane.  The disruption and drier air weakened the inner core of the circulation and caused Lorena to weaken to a tropical storm.  The inner core was beginning to redevelop on Thursday evening.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation and other thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Friday.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Lorena is likely to strengthen back into a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western part of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer Lorena toward the northwest.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Lorena will interact with the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario which is southwest of Lorena.  It looked like Lorena was pulling Mario toward the northeast on Thursday night.  However, it is possible that Mario could tug Lorena more toward the west on Friday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lorena will approach the southern tip of Baja California on Friday afternoon.  Lorena is likely to be a hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Mario was southwest of Lorena and Tropical Storm Kiko was between Baja California and Hawaii.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 110.2°W which put it about 265 miles (590 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 129.6°W which put it about 1350 miles (2175 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Lorena Strengthens to a Hurricane Near Manzanillo

Former Tropical Storm Lorena strengthened to a hurricane near Manzanillo, Mexico on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDY on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Lorena was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 104.7°W which put it 35 miles (55 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita, Mexico.

The circulation around Hurricane Lorena exhibited more organization on Wednesday night.  Some satellite images suggested that a small eye might be forming at the center of circulation.  Lorena was a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center.

Hurricane Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are not too strong and there is not likely to be a lot of vertical wind shear.  However, the center of Hurricane Lorena will move very close to the coast of Mexico.  Small hurricanes often draw drier air over the land into their circulations when they move close to the west coast of Mexico.  If Hurricane Lorena draws in drier air, it will weaken even though the rest of the environment is favorable for intensification.  If the center of Lorena moves farther away from the coast, then the hurricane could strengthen.

Hurricane Lorena will move around the western side of a ridge over Mexico.  The ridge will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lorena will pass very close to the west coast of Mexico on Thursday.  Hurricane Lorena could drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur.  If Hurricane Lorena doesn’t weaken near the coast, it could approach the southern tip of Baja California on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storms Kiko and Mario strengthened on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 127.8°W which put it about 1265 miles (2035 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 112.2°W which put it about 540 miles 9870 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Hurricane Norman Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Norman rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Norman was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 118.8°W which put it about 685 miles (1105 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Norman was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (285 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

The circulation Hurricane Norman is very symmetrical.  There is a small eye at the center of circulation and the eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Storm.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.

Hurricane Norman has a small circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Norman is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 40.2.  Hurricane Norman is a small, but powerful hurricane.

Hurricane Norman will remain in a very favorable environment for another day or so.  Norman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Norman could strengthen a little more during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle begins.  Norman is likely to move over slightly cooler water during the weekend and there may not be enough energy to maintain such a powerful hurricane.

Hurricane Norman will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Norman a little to the south of a due westerly course.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Norman will move toward the Central Pacific.

Elsewhere over the Central Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Miriam turned toward the north-northwest.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Miriam was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 141.6°W which put it about 930 miles (1495 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Miriam was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Miriam and Norman Become Hurricanes

Both former Tropical Storm Miriam and Tropical Storm Norman strengthened into hurricanes over the Eastern North Pacific on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Miriam was located at latitude 14.0°N and longitude 139.7°W which put it about 1090 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Miriam was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Norman was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 116.9°W which put it about 545 miles (875 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Norman was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts t0 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

An inner rainband wrapped much of the way around the center of circulation and an eye developed at the center  of Hurricane Miriam on Wednesday.  Storms near the core of Miriam generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The strongest rainbands were south and east of the center of Hurricane Miriam.  Rainbands on the northwest side of the circulation contained more showers and low clouds.

An inner rainband also wrapped most of the way around the center of Hurricane Norman on Wednesday and an eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Norman.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Norman was more symmetrical.  Storms around the core of Hurricane Norman were generating well developed upper level divergence.

Both Hurricane Miriam and Hurricane Norman were moving south of a subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  Miriam could reach the end of the ridge in the next day or two and turn toward the north.  The ridge is forecast to steer Hurricane Norman westward during the next two or three days.

Hurricane Miriam will approach an upper level trough east of Hawaii.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will increase vertical wind shear.  The shear is forecast to cause Miriam to weaken.  Hurricane Norman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Norman will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Norman is forecast to intensify into a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Norman Forms Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Norman formed southwest of Baja California on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Norman was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 113.9°W which put it about 455 miles (730 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Norman was moving toward west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Norman organized quickly on Wednesday.  A distinct low level center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms southwest of Baja California and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Norman.  A primary rainband wrapped part of the way around the center of circulation.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and began to revolve around the core of Norman.  Storms near the core started to generate strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm in all directions.

Tropical Storm Norman will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Norman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Norman could intensify to a hurricane in the next 24 hours.  Once an eye forms and the inner core is full organized, Norman could intensify rapidly.  It could strengthen into a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Norman will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific during the next few days.  The ridge will steer Norman in a general westerly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Norman will move toward the Central Pacific.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Miriam continued to move westward.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Miriam was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 137.4°W which put it about 1230 miles (1980 km) east of HIlo, Hawaii.  Miriam was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Miriam Forms Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Miriam formed southwest of Baja California on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Miriam was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 125.3°W which put it about 1210 miles (1950 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Miriam was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Miriam organized quickly on Sunday morning.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and the bands began to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the core of Miriam started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions.

Tropical Storm Miriam will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Miriam will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Miriam could intensify into a hurricane on Monday.  Miriam could intensify rapidly once the inner core becomes fully organized and an eye develops at the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Miriam will move south of the subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Miriam in a general westerly direction during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Miriam will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Norma Drifts Near Baja California, Otis Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 2 Hurricane

Tropical Storm Norma drifted near Baja California on Sunday, while Hurricane Otis rapidly strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 111.2°W which put it about 140 miles (220 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Norma was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Todos Santos, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Norma retains some of the structural features that it had when it was a hurricane.  The remnants of a large circular eye form the center of circulation.  A broken ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the remnants of the eye and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring.  Bands of showers and weaker thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Norma.  Some of the outer rainbands of Norma are already dropping heavy rain over parts of the southern end of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Norma will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next day or so.  Norma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level trough west of North America is producing southwesterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The circulation of Norma may also be drawing some cooler more stable air into the western part of the tropical storm.  Tropical Storm Norma could intensify somewhat during the next 24 hours, but it will eventually move over cooler water and weaken.

A ridge in the middle troposphere located east of Norma is steering the tropical storm toward the northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  When Norma weakens, it will be steered by the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  Those winds will push Tropical Storm Norma more toward the west during the middle of the weak.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Norma is forecast to remain west of Baja California.

Hurricane Otis intensified very rapidly on Sunday from a weak tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Otis was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 127.3°W which put it about 1200 miles (1930 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Otis was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Hurricane Otis has a very small circulation, which allowed to strengthen very rapidly when the environment became more favorable.  A small eye formed at the center of Hurricane Otis and a tight ring of very strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  Those storms began generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the center of circulation.  The pressure decreased quickly and the wind speed increased very rapidly.  Hurricane Otis still has a small circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Hurricane Otis may be near its peak intensity.  Otis is still moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C, but it will soon move over cooler water.  Hurricane Otis will move nearer to the upper level trough west of North America and the hurricane will encounter stronger vertical wind shear.  Because Otis is a small hurricane, it could weaken almost as fast as it intensified.

A small midlevel ridge east of Otis is steering the hurricane toward the north.  Much like Tropical Storm Norma, Otis will be steered by winds lower in the atmosphere when it weakens.  Those winds are forecast to steer Otis more toward the west-southwest later this week.

Tropical Depression 16E Forms, Flood Risk for Mexico

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E formed south of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 101.7°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  It was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was  35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.

A distinct center of circulation formed in a cluster of thunderstorms south of Mexico and that National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Sixteen-E on Wednesday morning.  The circulation of the depression was still organizing.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing south and east of the center of circulation.  There were fewer showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation and the depression may have been pulling in drier air from Mexico.

The depression has 12 to 18 hours to strengthen before it makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough extends from the eastern U.S. to Mexico.  The trough is producing westerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are generating moderate wind vertical shear, which will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Depression Sixteen-E could strengthen into a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Mexico.

The upper level trough is forecast to steer Tropical Depression Sixteen-E toward the east.  On its anticipated track the depression could make landfall east of Zihuatanejo in less than 24 hours.  The depression will bring gusty winds, but heavy rain poses a greater threat.  Heavy rain falling in steeper terrain could cause flash floods.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was moving farther away from Mexico.  Tropical Depression Fifteen-E formed when momentum from the upper half of the circulation of former Hurricane Katia spun up a new surface circulation over the Eastern North Pacific.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 120.6°W which put it about 890 miles (1435 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  It was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.