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Nakri Strengthens to a Typhoon and Moves Toward Vietnam

Former Tropical Storm Nakri strengthened into a typhoon and started to move toward Vietnam on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Typhoon Nakri was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 114.9°E which put it about 395 miles (635 km) east of Quy Nhon, Vietnam.  Nakri was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Typhoon Nakri was asymmetrical.  A broken ring of showers and thunderstorms surrounded the center of Nakri.  The strongest thunderstorms were in the southern portion of the ring.  Most of the strongest rainbands were in the southern half of the typhoon, although there was one strong rainband along the northern periphery of the circulation.  Many of the other bands on the eastern and northern sides of Typhoon Nakri consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  It appeared that sinking, drier air was limiting the development of thunderstorms in the northern half of the circulation.

In spite of the effects of the drier air, the size of the circulation around Typhoon Nakri increased on Friday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

Typhoon Nakri will be moving through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Nakri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move around the southern side of an upper level ridge over southeast Asia and the South China Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  Drier air to the north of Typhoon Nakri will also inhibit intensification.  Nakri is likely to maintain its intensity during the next day or so, but it could start to weaken if the wind shear increases or more drier air sinks over the circulation.

The ridge over southeast Asia and the South China Sea will steer Typhoon Nakri toward the west during the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Nakri could approach the coast of Vietnam in about 48 hours.  Typhoon Nakri could bring gusty winds and a storm surge for the central coast of Vietnam.  Nakri could drop locally heavy rainfall when it moves inland and flash floods could occur in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Halong was speeding away from Miami Tori Shima, Japan.  At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Halong was located at latitude 30.9°N and longitude 161.1°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) northeast of Minami Tori Shima, Japan.  Halong was moving toward the northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Storm Nakri Stalls West of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nakri stalled west of the Philippines on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nakri was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 116.8°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) west-southwest of Manila, Philippines.  Nakri was moving toward the south at 2 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Storm Nakri meandered slowly west of the Philippines on Thursday.  The structure of Nakri did not change a lot during the day.  There was a distinct low level center center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were forming on the south side of the center and the strongest winds were occurring in those thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Nakri.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms south of the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Nakri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Nakri mixed cooler water to the surface during the period when it meandered west of the Philippines, but it will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C when it starts moving.  Tropical Storm Nakri will move southeast of an upper level ridge over southeast Asia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Storm Nakri from strengthening.  Nakri will likely become a typhoon on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical Storm Nakri has been in an area where the steering winds have been weak and it has moved little during the past 24 hours.  The ridge over southeast Asia will strengthen and it will steer Nakri toward the east during the next 72 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nakri could approach the coast of Vietnam in less than 72 hours.  Nakri is likely to be a typhoon when it approaches the coast of Vietnam.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Halong was passing north of Minami Tori Shima, Japan.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Typhoon Halong was located at latitude 27.2°N and longitude 154.4°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) north of Minami Tori Shima, Japan.  Halong was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Typhoon Halong Intensifies into Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Halong intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Halong was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 150.6°E which put it about 345 miles (560 km) southwest of Minami Tori Shima, Japan.  Halong was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 220 m.p.h. (355 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 900 mb.

Typhoon Halong intensified into one of the strongest tropical cyclones of 2019 over the Western North Pacific Ocean on Tuesday.  There was a circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) at the center of Halong.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Halong.  Storm near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon along was compact and symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Halong was 42.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.6.

Typhoon Halong has probably reached its peak intensity.  Halong will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, an upper level trough near Japan will approach Typhoon Halong from the northwest.  The trough will produce strong southwesterly winds which will start to increase the vertical wind shear.  More wind shear will cause Halong to weaken.

The upper level trough will start to steer Typhoon Halong toward the northeast in 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Halong will pass northwest of Minami Tori Shima on Thursday.  Even though it will weaken, Halong will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Nakri developed over the South China Sea between the Philippines and Vietnam on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nakri was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 116.0°E which put it about 380 miles (615 km) west of Manila, Philippines.  Nakri was moving toward the northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Although Tropical Storm Nakri is currently moving toward the northeast, it is forecast to move back toward the west later this week.  Nakri will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Tropical Storm Nakri could strengthen into a typhoon before it reaches the coast of Vietnam.

Typhoon Halong Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Halong strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane northeast of the Northern Marianas on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Typhoon Halong was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 152.1°E which put it about 390 miles (630 km) south of Minami Tori Shima, Japan.  Halong was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Typhoon Halong continued to strengthen on Monday and it reached the equivalent of a major hurricane.  A small, well formed circular eye was evident on infrared satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Halong.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Halong increased in size on Monday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center.  The Hurricane intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Halong was 22.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index was 36.3.  Halong was capable of causing major damage.

Typhoon Halong will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for another 24 hours.  Halong will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the northwestern portion of an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear.  An upper level trough southwest of Japan will approach Typhoon Halong in 24 hours.  The trough will produce stronger southwesterly winds which will cause more vertical wind shear.  Halong will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Typhoon Halong will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 36 to 48 hours.  The ridge will steer Halong toward the north-northwest.  Halong will move toward the northeast later this week after if moves around the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Halong could approach Minami Tori Shima in less than 72 hours.

Halong Strengthens into a Typhoon East of the Northern Marianas

Former Tropical Storm Halong strengthened into a typhoon east of the Northern Marianas on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Halong was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 153.3°E which put it about 520 miles (840 km) east-northeast of Saipan.  Halong was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Storm Halong exhibited much better organization on Sunday.  An eye with a diameter of approximately 12 miles (19 km) formed at the center of Halong.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Halong.  The strongest rainbands were north and east of the center of circulation.  Bands in the western half of Halong consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Typhoon Halong may have been pulling sinking, drier air into the western half of the circulation, which may be why the bands were weaker in that part of the typhoon.  Storms around the core of Halong were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 10 miles (15 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

Typhoon Halong will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 to 48 hours.  Halong will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge where the winds are weak.  So, there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Halong will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Halong will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Halong toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  After that time Typhoon Halong will move more toward the north while it moves around the western end of the ridge.  Halong will move northeastward after it moves around the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Halong is forecast to remain northeast of the Northern Marianas.  Halong is expected to pass between Iwo To and Wake Island later next week.

Typhoon Bualoi Brings Wind and Rain to Ogasawara Islands

Typhoon Bualoi brought wind and rain to the Ogasawara Islands on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 27.6°N and longitude 142.2°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north of Chichijima, Japan.  Bualoi was moving toward the north at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Typhoon Bualoi moved over the Ogasawara Islands on Wednesday.  The core of Bulaoi and the strongest winds moved just to the east of Iwo To.  The international airport on Iwo To reported winds to near typhoon force.  The center of Typhoon Bualoi passed very close to Hahajima and Chichijima.  Bualoi produced gusty winds on Iwo To, Hahajima and Chichijima.  The typhoon also dropped locally heavy rain over some of the Ogasawara Islands.

Typhoon Bualoi weakened slowly on Wednesday.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring in the northern half of Bualoi.  Bands in the southern half of the typhoon consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level trough west of Japan produced southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and they were the probable reason for the weaker bands in the southern half of the circulation.

Typhoon Bualoi will continue to weaken.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough west of Japan will continue to cause wind shear which will weaken the typhoon.  In addition, the circulation around Typhoon Bualoi will pull drier air around the southern side of the typhoon.  The drier air will make Bualoi start to weaken more quickly.

The upper level trough west of Japan will turn Typhoon Bualoi toward the northeast on Thursday.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Bualoi will move away from the Ogasawara Islands during the next 24 hours.  The wind speeds should gradually decrease and rainfall will end quickly as Bualoi moves away from those islands.  Typhoon Bualoi is forecast to pass well to the southeast of Honshu.

Powerful Typhoon Bualoi Approaches Iwo To

Powerful Typhoon Bualoi approached Iwo To on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 142.1°E which put it about 220 miles (360 km) south-southeast of Iwo To.  Bualoi was moving toward the north-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts of 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Concentric eyewalls appeared to be at the center of Typhoon Bualoi.  The small inner eye and eyewall were still evident on visible and microwave satellite images.  A second outer eyewall completely encircled the inner eyewall.  The strongest winds were occurring in the inner eyewall.  Eventually, low level convergence will occur mainly in the outer eyewall and the inner eyewall will begin to weaken.  The maximum wind speed will decrease as the inner eyewall weakens.  However, the eyewall replacement cycle will cause the circulation around Typhoon Bualoi to increase in size.

Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Typhoon Bualoi.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.5.  Bualoi was capable of causing significant damage.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak during the next 24 hours and there will be little vertical wind shear during the next days or so.  Even though Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon, the eyewall replacement cycle will cause Bualoi to weaken.  Typhoon Bualoi will move into a region where the upper level winds will be stronger on Thursday.  Increased wind shear will cause Bualoi to weaken more quickly when that happens.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 36 to 48 hours.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the north during the next 24 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the northeast on Thursday.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Bualoi could reach Iwo To in about 12 hours.  Bualoi will bring very strong winds to Iwo To.  It will be capable of causing major damage.  Typhoon Bualoi will also drop heavy rain on Iwo To and flash floods will be likely.

Typhoon Bualoi Strengthens to Equivalent of Major Hurricane over Marianas

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Marianas on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 145.5°E which put it about 660 miles (1060 km) south-southeast of Iwo To.  Bualoi was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Bualoi continued to intensify quickly on Monday.  There was a small eye at the center of Bualoi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Bualoi.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Bualoi was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.1.  Typhoon Bualoi was capable of causing localized major damage.  The core of Bualoi where the strongest winds were occurring passed north of Saipan.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon for another 24 to 36 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Bualoi could strengthen during the next 24 hours.  If an inner rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause the typhoon to start to weaken.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Bualoi will move away from the Northern Marianas.  Conditions should improve when Bualoi gets farther away.  Typhoon Bualoi could be near Iwo To in about 60 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri was moving south of Honshu.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 32.4°N and longitude 137.6°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the east-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  The center of Tropical Storm Neoguri is likely to pass south of Tokyo during in about 12 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi Strengthens as it Approaches the Marianas

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened as it approached the Marianas on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 147.8°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) east-southeast of Saipan.  Bualoi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan.  A Typhoon Watch was in effect for Rota.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan.

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened quickly on Sunday.  A small circular eye developed at the center of Bualoi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the typhoon.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Bualoi in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Bualoi was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (215 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.3.  Bualoi was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 36 to 48 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bualoi will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Bualoi could pass near Saipan in about 12 hours.  If the center passes near or over Saipan, then there will be winds of typhoon force.  However, since the circulation around Bualoi is fairly small, if the typhoon passes north of Saipan, it will receive much weaker winds.  Typhoon Bualoi could be near Iwo To in less than three days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri was moving toward Honshu.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 133.6°E which put it about 600 miles (965 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.  Tropical Storm Neoguri could pass close to the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in about 24 hours.

Neoguri Strengthens to Typhoon South of Okinawa, Bualoi Prompts Watches for Marianas

Former Tropical Storm Neoguri strengthened into a typhoon south of Okinawa on Saturday and Tropical Storm Bualoi prompted watches for the Marianas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 128.1°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Okinawa.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Typhoon Neoguri strengthened rapidly on Saturday.  An eye formed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Neoguri.  There were more bands of thunderstorms in the northern half of the typhoon.  The circulation around Typhoon Neoguri was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center.

Typhoon Neoguri will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days.  Neoguri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the ocean to support intensification.  However, an upper level trough over China will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Typhoon Neoguri.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will be strong enough to cause Neoguri to weaken.  Since the circulation around the typhoon is small, it could weaken more rapidly if the upper level winds get stronger.

The upper level trough over China will steer Typhoon Neoguri toward the northeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Neoguri will pass east of the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa during the next 36 hours.  It could approach Honshu in about 48 hours.  Typhoon Neoguri will likely be a tropical storm by the time it approaches Honshu.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Depression 22W rapidly strengthened into Tropical Storm Bualoi.  Bualoi had almost strengthened into a typhoon by Saturday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bualoi was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 150.8°E which put it about 455 miles (730 km) east of Guam.  Bualoi was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Typhoon Watches were in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Guam.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Bualoi organized quickly on Saturday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation.  Microwave satellite images indicated that an eye could be forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bualoi.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Bualoi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Bualoi will strengthen into a typhoon on Sunday and it could eventually intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Bualoi will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the west-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bualoi could reach the Marianas in 36 hours.  Bualoi will very likely be a typhoon when it reaches the Marianas.  The center of Bualoi could pass near Tinian and Saipan.  It could be near Iwo To in about four days.