Typhoon Bolaven Passes East of Iwo To

Typhoon Bolaven passed east of Iwo To on Thursday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Bolaven was located at latitude 26.2°N and longitude 147.8°E which put it about 350 miles (570 km) east of Iwo To. Bolaven was moving toward the northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (285 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 928 mb.

Concentric eyewalls developed at the center of Typhoon Bolaven on Thursday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing small eye and eyewall. The larger outer eyewall surrounded the inner eye and eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the concentric eyewalls. Storms near the eyewalls generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the typhoon.

The size of Typhoon Bolaven increased when the concentric eyewalls developed. Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Bolaven’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 265 miles (425 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bolaven was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.2.

Typhoon Bolaven will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours. Bolaven will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near Japan. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bolaven’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Typhoon Bolaven is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours as it goes through an eyewall replacement cycle and the vertical wind shear increases. Bolaven could make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone when it moves over cooler water south of Alaska.

The upper level trough near Japan will steer Typhoon Bolaven quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bolaven will pass far to the east of Japan on Friday. Bolaven could move south of the Aleutian Islands during the weekend.