Tag Archives: Madagascar

Major Tropical Cyclone Idai Nears Mozambique

Major Tropical Cyclone Idai neared the coast of Mozambique on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Idai was located at latitude 19.7°S and longitude 37.5°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east of Beira, Mozambique.  Idai was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Idai strengthened back into the equivalent of a major hurricane after it completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Wednesday.  An eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) appeared on satellite images after the remnants of the original inner eyewall weakened.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the large eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Idai.  Storms near the core of Idai were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Idai increased during the eyewall replacement cycle.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 155 miles (250 km from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Idai was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.6.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will remain in an environment favorable for intensification until it reaches the coast of Mozambique.  Idai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an environment where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Idai could strengthen before it reaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will move north of a subtropical ridge over southern Africa.  The ridge will steer Idai toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Idai will make landfall on the coast of Mozambique near Beira in less than 24 hours.  Idai will bring very strong winds and it will be capable of causing regional major damage.  Tropical Cyclone Idai will also drop heavy rain over parts of Mozambique and it will likely cause flooding in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Idai Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Idai strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Mozambique Channel on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Idai was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 42.0°E which put it about 490 miles (785 km) east-northeast of Beira, Mozambique.  Idai was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Idai intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday and then it appeared to begin an eyewall replacement cycle.  A rainband wrapped around the original eye and eyewall.  Convergence became concentrated on the outer eyewall and the inner eyewall began to dissipate.  The overall size of the circulation increased.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 130 miles (210 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Idai was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.8.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for several more days.  Idai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Idai could strengthen further once the inner eyewall dissipates completely and the eyewall replacement cycle ends.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will move around the southeastern part of a subtropical ridge over southern Africa.  The ridge will steer Idai on a course that is a little south of due west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Idai could reach the coast of Mozambique near Beira in less than 72 hours.  Idai could still be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Idai Rapidly Intensifies Into Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Idai rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Idai was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 43.2°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Maintirano, Madagascar.  Idai was moving toward the south at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Idai intensified rapidly on Sunday.  An eye was apparent on satellite imagery,  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Idai.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Idai was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.5.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will continue to move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two,  Idai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Idai could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will move around the eastern end of a subtropical ridge over southern Africa. The ridge will steer Idai toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Idai could approach the coast of Mozambique in about four days.  Idai could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Idai Forms Over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Idai formed over the Mozambique Channel on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Idai was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 42.5°E which put it about 135 miles (220 km) west-northwest of Maintirano, Madagascar.  Idai was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Idai organized quickly on Saturday.  The inner portion of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of circulation.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Idai.  Storms near the core began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Idai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Idai will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.  Once the inner core is fully organized, Idai could strengthen rapidly and it could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will move around the eastern end of a subtropical ridge over southern Africa.  The ridge will steer Idai back toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Idai could approach the coast of Mozambique in about four days.  Idai could be the equivalent of a major hurricane by that time.

Tropical Cyclone Gelena Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Gelena strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gelena was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 56.9°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Gelena was moving toward the southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gelena strengthened and grew larger on Friday.  An eye appeared intermittently at the center of Gelena on satellite imagery.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  More bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gelena was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.9.  Those indices indicated that tropical Cyclone Gelena was capable of causing major regional damage.

Tropical Cyclone Gelena will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification for another 12 to 24 hours.  Gelena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough near Madagascar will produce westerly winds which are blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Gelena.  Those winds will produce some vertical wind shear and they will inhibit upper level divergence toward the western periphery of Gelena.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Gelena could strengthen on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Gelena will move south of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Gelena in a southeasterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gelena will pass north of Mauritius.  However, Gelena could approach Rodrigues within 36 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Gelena could bring strong winds and heavy rain to Rodrigues.

Elsewhere over the southern Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Funani was speeding toward colder water.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Funani was located at latitude 26.3°S and longitude 73.4°E which put it about 805 miles (1295 km) east-southeast of Rodrigues.  Funani was moving toward the southeast at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Funani Brushes Rodrigues, Gelena Also a Threat

The western edge of Tropical Cyclone Funani brushed Rodrigues on Wednesday and Tropical Cyclone Gelena also posed a threat to the island.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Funani was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 65.1°E which put it about 515 miles (830 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius and about 155 miles (250 km) northeast of Rodrigues.  Funani was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Funani rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.  An eye was apparent on satellite images.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the core of Funani generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Funani.  There were more bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Funani will be in an environment favorable for intensification for another 12 to 24 hours.  Funani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Funani could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Funani will move over cooler water at the end of the week and it will start to weaken in a less favorable environment.

Tropical Cyclone Funani is moving south of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southeast.  A general motion toward the southeast is expected to continue during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Funani will pass east of Rodrigues.  Surface observations on Rodrigues indicate that the western portion of Funani is dropping rain on that island, but winds are generally blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Gelena also poses a threat to Rodrigues.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gelena was located at latitude 12.5°S and longitude 53.2°E which put it about 535 miles (865 km) north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Gelena was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gelena also intensified rapidly on Wednesday.  A tiny, pinhole eye was apparent on satellite imagery.  A thin ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the core of Gelena were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Gelena.  There were more bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (150 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gelena will also move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Gelena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gelena is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Gelena could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next several days.

Although Tropical Cyclone Gelena is currently weaker and smaller than Tropical Cyclone Funani, it may pose a greater risk to Rodrigues.  Gelena is forecast to pass closer to Rodrigues than Funani will pass and Gelena may be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it moves near Rodrigues.  Gelena could bring strong winds and heavy rain to Rodrigues in about 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Funani Develops Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Funani developed northeast of Mauritius on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Funani was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 64.0°E which put it about 505 miles (815 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius and about 265 miles (425 km) north of Rodrigues.  Funani was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Funani organized quickly on Tuesday.  An inner rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and were revolving around the core of Funani.  There were more bands on the eastern side of the circulation.  Storms near the core began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Funani will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Funani will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Funani could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane in about 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Funani will move near the southeastern end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge and a trough over the southwestern Indian Ocean will steer Funani in a general south-southwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Funani will remain east of Mauritius and La Reunion.  Funani could be near Rodrigues in about 24 hours.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 13S formed east of Madagascar.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 13S was located at latitude 12.3°S and longitude 53.6°E which put it about 570 miles (920 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Desmond Forms Over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Desmond formed over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Desmond was located at latitude 21.3°S and longitude 39.0°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) south-southeast of Quelimane, Mozambique.  Desmond was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Thunderstorms developed closer to the center of a low pressure system over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday and the system was designated Tropical Cyclone Desmond.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Desmond was very asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands southeast of the center of circulation.  Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level trough just southeast of Africa was producing northwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Desmond.   Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Desmond will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Desmond will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level trough is forecast to move eastward and the vertical wind shear could decrease.  Tropical Cyclone Desmond could strengthen when the shear decreases, if it is still over water.

Tropical Cyclone Desmond will move around the eastern end of a subtropical ridge in the middle levels over southern Africa.  The ridge should steer Desmond in a north-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Desmond will move toward Mozambique and it could make landfall within 36 hours.  However, there is another low pressure system near northern Madagascar.  If the circulations of the two low pressure systems interact, then Desmond could be pulled farther to the north.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida Passes East of Mauritius

Strong Tropical Cyclone Cilida passed east of Mauritius on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 60.3°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the south-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida was being steered to the south-southeast between an upper level trough near Madagascar and a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  Those weather systems steered Cilida east of Mauritius.  Northwesterly winds blowing on the eastern side of the upper level trough were causing vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida was weakening, but it was still the equivalent of a major hurricane.  There was a circular eye at the center of Cilida.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  Cilida passed far enough to the east of Mauritius that the strongest winds remained offshore.  A weather station at Belle Mare on the east coast of Mauritius reported a maximum wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h).  An automated weather station on Signal Mountain reported a maximum wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (79 km/h).  Tropical Cyclone Cilida probably brought winds to tropical storm force to Mauritius, especially at higher elevations.

The stronger rainbands around Tropical Cyclone Cilida also passed east of Mauritius.  Cilida dropped light rain over most of Mauritius.  Heavier rain did fall over locations where the wind blew up the slopes of ridges and mountains.  1.44 inches (36.6 mm) of rain fell at Mon Bois and 1.31 inches (33.4 mm) fell at Mare Aux Vacoas.

The upper level trough over Madagascar will continue to steer Tropical Cyclone Cilida toward the south-southeast.  On its anticipated track Cilida will move farther away from Mauritius.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and the vertical wind shear increases.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Cilida Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Cilida strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 57.8°E which put it about 310 miles (505 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 931 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was very well organized.  A circular eye was at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Cilida was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 95 miles (155 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Cilida was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.6.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida may have peaked in intensity, but it will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone for another 24 to 36 hours.  Cilida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C for about another 24 hours.  Then it will start to move over colder waters.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move toward the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes and the vertical wind shear will increase in about 36 hours.  When Cilida moves over colder water and under stronger upper level winds, it will weaken more quickly.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge will start to steer Cilida toward the southeast on Saturday.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida could be a little northeast of Mauritius in about 24 hours.  It will still be a powerful tropical cyclone at that time.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Kenanga continued to weaken well to the southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 78.5°E which put it about 760 miles (1225 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.