Tag Archives: Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Gabekile Develops South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Gabekile developed south of Diego Garcia on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabekile was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 74.1°E which put it about 700 miles (1125 km) south of Diego Garcia.  Gabekile was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gabekile was small but well organized.  Some microwave images suggested that a small eye could be forming at the center of circulation.  The eyelike feature was surrounded by a tight ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the small core of Gabekile.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gabekile will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Gabekile will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Gabekile could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gabekile will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Gabekile  toward the south.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gabekile will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Francisco was weakening as it moved slowly inland over east-central Madagascar.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 20.0°S and longitude 48.3°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) north of Marolambo, Madagascar.  Francisco was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Francisco was dropping locally heavy rain over parts of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco Redevelops Near East Coast of Madagascar

After moving slowly westward across the Southwest Indian Ocean for the past few days, Tropical Cyclone Francisco redeveloped near the east coast of Madagascar on Thursday.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 50.7°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Francisco was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear weakened Tropical Cyclone Francisco east of Rodrigues last Thursday, but the lower portion of the circulation remained intact.  The lower level circulation drifted slowly westward during the last seven days and it moved across Mauritius and La Reunion earlier the week.  More thunderstorms began to develop around the lower level circulation on Wednesday, when it moved closer to the east coast of Madagascar.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to reform.  Storms near the center of circulation started generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speeds began to increase.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco has exhibited greater organization in recent hours.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Francisco was moving under the northern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge was producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear and the shear could be responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 6 to 12 hours.  Francisco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level ridge will still cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Francisco will weaken when it moves over Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Francisco toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Francisco could make landfall on the east coast of Madagascar in about 12 hours.  Francisco will drop locally heavy rain over parts of central Madagascar.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,

Tropical Cyclone Diane Forms North of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Diane formed north of La Reunion on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Diane was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 56.2°E which put it about 110 miles (175 km) north-northeast of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Diane was moving toward the east-southeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in an area of low pressure east of Madagascar on Friday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Diane.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Diane was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring northwest of the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing east of the center of Diane.  Storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Diane will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Diane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level trough west of Madagascar and an upper level ridge east of Mauritius will interact to produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Diane could intensify slowly during the next 24 to 36 hours.

The upper level trough and upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Diane toward the east-southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Diane could bring wind and rain to Mauritius within 12 hours.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Belna Makes Landfall in Western Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Belna made landfall in the west coast of Madagascar near Soalala on Monday.  At 9:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belna was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 45.0°E which put it about 20 miles (30 km) west-southwest of Soalala, Madagascar.  Belna was moving toward the south-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Belna made landfall near Soalala, Madagascar on Monday as the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  There was a small circular eye at the center of Belna.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Belna was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Belna was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 21.0.  Belna was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours.  The high will steer Belna toward the south-southwest during that time period.  On it anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Belna will move across west central Madagascar.  Belna will weaken when it moves farther inland but it will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the southwestern part of the district of Mahajanga.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods, especially in areas of steeper terrain.  Some rivers could rise very rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone Belna Approaches Northwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Belna approached northwest Madagascar on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belna was located at latitude 13.3°S and longitude 46.2°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) north of Mahajanga, Madagascar.  Belna was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Belna strengthened into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the weekend.  The inner end of a rain band wrapped most the way around the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the part of the rainband wrapped around the center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Belna.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Belna was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Belna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Belna could strengthen if the inner core becomes better organized and a complete eyewall forms.  Belna will weaken once the center moves over land.  Since the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Belna is small, it will weaken fairly rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Belna toward the south-southwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Belna will make landfall on the northwest coast of Madagascar near Soalala in about 24 hours.  Belna will bring winds to near hurricane/typhoon force to locations near the coast.  Locally heavy rain will fall, especially in locations where the wind blows up the slopes of mountains.  Locally heavy rain coud cause flash floods in western Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Belna Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon North of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Belna strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon north of Madagascar on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belna was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 48.2°E which put it about 440 miles (710 km) north-northeast of Mahajanga, Madagascar.  Belna was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Belna continued to strengthen on Friday.  Microwave satellite images continued to indicate that an eye was in the process of forming.  The ring of thunderstorms around the developing eye got stronger and the strongest winds were found in that ring of storms.  More thunderstorms developed in the bands revolving around the core of Belna.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Belna was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Belna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Belna will continue to intensify during the weekend and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Belna toward the south-southwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Belna could approach the coast of Madagascar near Mahajanga in about three days.  Belna could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches the coast.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ambali weakened almost as fast as it intensified on Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ambali was located at latitude 11.7°S and longitude 62.1°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Ambali was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ambali Rapidly Intensifies to Threshold of Cat. 5

Tropical Cyclone Ambali rapidly intensified to the threshold of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ambali was located at latitude 10.8°S and longitude 62.1°E which put it about 740 miles (1190 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Ambali was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ambali rapidly intensified from a minimal tropical storm to the threshold of a Cat. 5 hurricane in less than 36 hours over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  Nearly perfect environmental conditions including warm water and little vertical wind shear allowed Ambali to strengthen very rapidly.  A small circular eye formed at the center of the tropical cyclone.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Ambali.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ambali was small which also contributed to the rapid intensification.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Ambali was 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.2.

Tropical Cyclone Ambali may be near its maximum intensity, although it could strengthen a little more during the next six to twelve hours.  Ambali will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will remain in an area where the upper level winds are weak during the next six to twelve hours and there will be little vertical wind shear during that time.  Tropical Cyclone Ambali will approach an area where there are strong upper level westerly winds during the weekend.  Ambali will weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Ambali will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Ambali toward the south-southwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ambali will move toward Mauritius.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Belna was intensifying north of Madagascar.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belna was located at latitude 7.5°S and longitude 49.0°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) north of Madagsacar.  Belna was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Belna exhibited much greater organization on Thursday.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation on microwave satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving about the core of Belna.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Belna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Belna is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.  Belna could intensify rapidly once an eye and eyewall are full formed.  It could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Belna toward the south-southwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Blena could approach the coast of northwestern Madagascar in three or four days.  Belna could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches Madagascar.

Two Tropical Cyclones Form over Southwest Indian Ocean

One day after a pair of tropical cyclones developed over Arabian Sea, two tropical cyclones formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 02S was located at latitude 6.9°S and longitude 51.2°E which put it about 355 miles (575 km) north of Madagascar.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03S was located at latitude 7.5°S and longitude 64.0°E which put it about 570 miles (915 km) west of Diego Garcia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) snd there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 02S was still organizing on Wednesday afternoon and the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the northern side of the circulation.  Bands on the southern side of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storm near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 02S will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 to 72 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through a region where there will be weak southeasterly winds in the upper levels.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and they may already have contributed to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent the Tropical Cyclone 02S from getting stronger. The tropical cyclone could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon in 48 to 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 02S will move near the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 02S could approach northern Madagascar in three or four days.

Tropical Cyclone 03S was also still organizing on Wednesday afternoon and it too had an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The strongest thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 03S were occurring in bands south and west of the center of circulation.  Bands north and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds will blow from the north.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and they may have already contributed to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification but it will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Cyclone 03S from getting stronger.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will also be steered by the subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 03S could move toward Mauritius.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Makes Landfall in Northern Mozambique

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Kenneth made landfall in northern Mozambique on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth was located at latitude 12.1°S and longitude 40.5°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) north of Pemba, Mozambique.  Kenneth was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth continued to intensify until it made landfall near Quissanga, Mozambique.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Kenneth was 28.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.5.  Those indices mean that Tropical Cyclone Kenneth was capable of causing significant regional damage.  In addition to wind damage Kenneth will cause a significant storm surge at the coast.  Locally heavy rain will produce flooding over parts of northern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will weaken when it moves inland over northern Mozambique.  However, It will take several days for the circulation around Kenneth to spin down.  The circulation could linger in that area for several days.  If that happens, persistent rainfall will exacerbate flooding of rivers and streams, which would hinder rescue and recovery efforts.

Elsewhere over the southern Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Lorna was swirling well to the east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lorna was located at latitude 11.0°S and longitude 86.1°E which put it about 950 miles (1530 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Lorna was moving toward the east-southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Major Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Brings Strong Wind, Rain to Comoros

Major Tropical Cyclone Kenneth brought strong wind and rain to the Comoros on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth was located at latitude 11.3°S and longitude 42.8°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) north of the Comoros.  Kenneth was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth intensified rapidly on Tuesday into the equivalent of a major hurricane.  A small circular eye appeared at the center of circulation on infrared satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 130 miles (215 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Kenneth was 20.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.1.  Tropical Cyclone Kenneth was capable of causing major damage.

The southern half of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth passed over northern Grande Comore (Njazidja).  Mitsamiouli and Mbeni were likely to have experienced winds to hurricane/typhoon force.  Strong winds may have also affected the capital, Moroni.  Major wind damage may have occurred in those areas.  Heavy rain falling on steep slopes may cause flash flooding.  Easterly winds blowing up the slopes would have enhanced rainfall and the greatest risks for flooding were on the eastern sides of the mountains.  Those easterly winds may have also generated a significant storms surge along the northeast coast of Grande Comore (Njazidja).

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Kenneth will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Kenneth is likely to intensify more while it moves across the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will move north of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Kenneth a little to the south of due west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will make landfall on the north coast of Mozambique between Ibo and Mocimboa da Praia in about 18 hours.  Kenneth is likely to be a strong tropical cyclone at the time of landfall.  It will be capable of causing major wind damage and a storm surge at the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will also drop heavy rain when it moves inland over northern Mozambique and it could cause additional flooding in that region.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Lorna moved gradually farther away from Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lorna was located at latitude 10.3°S and longitude 84.8°E which put it about 855 miles (1380 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Lorna was moving toward the east at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.