Tag Archives: SH20

Tropical Cyclone Fakir Brings Wind and Rain to Mauritius and La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Fakir brought wind and rain to Mauritius and La Reunion on Tuesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fakir was located at latitude 21.9°S and longitude 56.6°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) southeast of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Fakir was moving toward the southeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.  Fakir was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fakir passed between Mauritius and La Reunion on Tuesday and it brought gusty winds and heavy rain.  An eye formed at the center of circulation and a narrow ring of thunderstorms wrapped tightly around the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring south and east of the center of circulation.  The bands north and west of the center consisted primarily of light showers and low clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 170 miles (270 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Fakir was capable of causing minor wind damage on Mauritius and La Reunion.  Fakir was also dropping heavy rain and the rain was likely to produce flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fakir was moving rapidly to the southeast.  So, conditions on Mauritius and La Reunion are likely to improve later on Tuesday when the core of Fakir moves away.  Fakir has peaked in intensity.  Although it is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C, Tropical Cyclone Fakir has moved under an area of strong upper level winds blowing from the northwest.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear, which will weaken Fakir.

Tropical Cyclone Fakir Strengthens Rapidly Northwest of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Fakir strengthened rapidly northwest of La Reunion on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fakir was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 54.5°E which put it about 220 miles (355 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Fakir was moving toward the southeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A center of circulation developed early Monday in an area of thunderstorms east of Madagascar and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Fakir.  The circulation organized quickly and in a few hours Fakir strengthened into the equivalent of a strong tropical storm.  A primary rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation.  There were some indications of the potential development of an eye at the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms developed south and east of the core of Tropical Cyclone Fakir.  Storms in the core of Fakir generated strong upper level divergence which pumped away mass to the southeast of the circulation.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly and the winds to increase in response to that decrease.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fakir could remain in an environment favorable for intensification for another 12 to 18 hours.  Fakir will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fakir is moving around the southwestern portion of an upper level ridge located over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge is producing northwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  The winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear, but they were not strong enough to prevent Fakir from strengthening rapidly on Monday.  Tropical Cyclone Fakir could become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Fakir will move under stronger upper level winds in a day or so and then it will start to weaken because of the stronger vertical wind shear.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Fakir rapidly toward the southeast and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fakir will approach Mauritius and La Reunion in about 12 hours.  It could be nearly the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.  Fakir will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Mauritius and La Reunion.  Minor wind damage is possible.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods.  The most likely track takes the center of Tropical Cyclone Fakir between Mauritius and La Reunion.  The western side of the circulation is a little weaker than the eastern side is.  If Fakir follows that track, then the strongest wind and heaviest rain could affect Mauritius.  However, Fakir will also affect La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Amos Speeds Past Samoa and Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Amos weakened as it sped past Samoa on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Amos was located at latitude 14.0°S and longitude 169.1°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) north of Luma, Samoa.  Amos was moving toward the southeast at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

A ridge of high pressure east of Amos produced strong northwesterly winds which steered the tropical cyclone rapidly to the east-southeast on Saturday.  Those steering winds carried the core of Amos just north of the larger islands of Samoa.  Since hurricane force winds only extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation, the stronger winds stayed mostly over the open water.  A weather station in Pago Pago, Samoa reported a wind gust of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Amos is currently bringing wind and rain to the Manua Islands of eastern Samoa which include Olosega, Ofu and Ta’u.  The rapid forward motion of Amos means that conditions should improve within a few hours.

The strong northwesterly winds are causing significant vertical wind shear that is rapidly weakening Tropical Cyclone Amos.  Amos is still moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C, but the vertical wind shear should continue to weaken the tropical cyclone as it moves farther east of Samoa.

Strong Tropical Cyclone Amos Heading Toward Samoa

Tropical Cyclone Amos strengthened as it passed over Iles Wallis and headed toward Samoa on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Amos was located at latitude 12.5°S and longitude 175.4°E which put it about 70 miles (115 km) north-northeast of Iles Wallis and about 360 miles (580 km) west-northwest of Pago Pago, Samoa.  Amos was moving toward the east at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The core of the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Amos is small but it is well organized.  There is a ring of the thunderstorms around an eye, but clouds from the taller thunderstorms are obscuring the eye on conventional satellite imagery.  Multiple bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the core of the circulation.  The thunderstorms are generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Amos is an environment favorable for further intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The winds in the upper levels are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Amos is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the western part of Samoa.

A ridge of high pressure is expected to steer Tropical Cyclone Amos toward the east-southeast during the nest several days.  On its anticipated track Amos could be approaching the western islands of Samoa in a little over 24 hours.  It could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Amos is currently 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 26.8.  Those indices suggest that the core of Tropical Cyclone Amos will be capable of causing major damage if it moves directly over any of the islands of Samoa.  In addition, Amos will produce locally heavy rain capable of causing flash floods.  It could also generate high waves and surges along the coasts of some of the islands.

Tropical Cyclone Amos to Bring Wind and Rain to Wallis and Samoa

Tropical Cyclone Amos intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Thursday as it moved eastward across the South Pacific.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Amos was located at latitude 12.4°S and longitude 177.1°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) northwest of Iles Wallis.  Amos was moving toward the east-northeast at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Amos is a small, tightly organized storm.  A primary band of thunderstorms wraps almost entirely around the center of circulation and an eyelike feature is visible intermittently on satellite imagery.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms are spiraling around the core of the circulation.  The thunderstorms are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions and causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The environment around Tropical Cyclone Amos is very favorable for further intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are very weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Amos will continue to intensify on Friday and it could intensify rapidly.

A subtropical ridge north of Amos is steering the tropical cyclone toward the east and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Amos will pass near Iles Wallis on Friday.  Although the core of strongest winds will pass north of Iles Wallis, It could still bring strong winds, heavy rain and large waves to those islands.  On its anticipated track Amos could be approaching western Samoa within 36 hours.  It could be a very strong tropical cyclone at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Amos Forms North of Fiji

A center of circulation developed within a large area of thunderstorms north of Fiji on Wednesday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Amos.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Amos was located at latitude 12.5°S and longitude 179.4°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) northwest of Ile Futuna.  Amos was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation near the core of Tropical Cyclone Amos is still organizing.  A narrow primary band of thunderstorms is wrapping tightly around the core and an eye may be forming at the center of circulation.  Several other thin bands of showers and thunderstorms are rotating around the outer portions of the circulation.  The thunderstorms are generating some upper level divergence, but it is not well developed yet.

The environment is favorable for continued intensification.  Amos is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are not very strong and there is little vertical wind shear.  As the core of the circulation becomes more well organized, it will convert energy from the ocean more efficiently and the wind speeds will increase.  Tropical Cyclone Amos could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Amos is currently in an area where the steering currents are weak.  An upper level ridge is forecast to develop north of Amos and begin to steer the tropical cyclone toward the east.  On its anticipated track Amos could pass near Iles Wallis in 24 to 36 hours.  It could be approaching Samoa in two or three days.