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Trami Strengthens Into a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Trami strengthened into a typhoon on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Trami was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 134.6°E which put it about 810 miles (1310 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Trami was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Trami became more circular and symmetrical on Saturday.   An inner band of thunderstorms wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and eye was developing at the center of Trami.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Trami.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

Typhoon Trami will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Trami will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  it will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Trami could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next day or two.

Typhoon Trami will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Trami toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Trami could be east of Taiwan and southeast of the Ryukyu Islands in four or five days.  It could be a powerful typhoon at that time.

Tropical Storm Trami Develops West of the Marianas

Tropical Storm Trami developed west of the Marianas on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Trami was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 140.8°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) northwest of Guam.  Trami was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression 28W strengthened on Friday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Trami.  An inner band of thunderstorms wrapped tightly around the northern and western sides of the center of circulation.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Trami.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the core of Trami were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Trami will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  Trami will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Trami will continue to intensify and it could become a typhoon during the next 24 hours.  A period of rapid intensification is possible once the inner core is fully developed.  Tropical Storm Trami could become the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Trami will continue to move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Trami in a general west-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Trami could be southeast of Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands in four or five days.  It could be a powerful typhoon at that time.

Tropical Depression 28W Forms Over the Marianas

Tropical Depression 28W formed over the Mariana Islands on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression 28W was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 144.8°E which put it about 15 miles (25 km) east-northeast of Guam.  It was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Rota, Saipan and Tinian.

Tropical Depression 28W was still organizing on Thursday.  A distinct center of circulation formed in an area of thunderstorms near the Marianas.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed around the circulation.  The strongest rainbands were forming in the eastern half of the circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also forming in the western half of the circulation but there were fewer strong thunderstorms in that half of the tropical depression.  Storm closer to the center of circulation were starting to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression 28W will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The tropical depression will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression 28W will intensify during the next few days.  It is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm on Friday and it could intensify into a typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Depression 28W will move around the southern side of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days.  The ridge will steer the depression in a general west-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track the depression could be southeast of Okinawa in four or five days and it is likely to be a typhoon at that time.

Typhoon Mangkhut Approaches Southern China

After causing significant destruction over northern Luzon, Typhoon Mangkhut approached southern China on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Mangkhut was located at latitude 21.0°N and longitude 114.4°E which put it about 130 miles (205 km) south-southeast of Hong Kong.  Mangkhut was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

The inner core of Typhoon Mangkhut was disrupted when it moved across the northern end of Luzon.  The inner eyewall weakened and a larger ragged eye was at the center of the typhoon.  Recent visible satellite images seemed to show an inner rainband wrapping more tightly around the center of circulation and the inner core of Typhoon Mangkhut could be reorganizing.  A smaller eye could be redeveloping at the center of circulation.

Even though it has weakened since yesterday, Typhoon Mangkhut has a very large circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 350 miles (565 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mangkhut is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 28.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Index (HWISI) is 45.0.  Typhoon Mangkhut is capable of causing widespread serious damage.

Typhoon Mangkhut is moving southwest of a subtropical ridge which is steering the typhoon quickly toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Mangkhut will pass south of Hong Kong in a few hours.  Mangkhut will make landfall on the coast of south China near Yangjiang in about 12 hours.  Typhoon Mangkhut will bring strong gusty winds to southern China.  It will cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.  Mangkhut will also drop heavy rain and it will cause flash floods.

Powerful Typhoon Mangkhut Hits Northern Luzon

Powerful Typhoon Mangkhut hit northern Luzon on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Mangkhut was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 121.5°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) east of Laoag, Philippines.  Mangkhut was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 200 m.p.h. (320 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 908 mb.

Mangkhut is a large and dangerous typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 330 miles (530 km) from the center.  The outer rainbands around Typhoon Mangkhut stretch from Manila, Philippines to southern Taiwan.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 36.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 38.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 75.3.  Typhoon Mangkhut is bigger than Hurricane Katrina was when Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.  Typhoon Mangkhut has the potential to cause extensive catastrophic damage over parts of Luzon.

Typhoon Mangkhut will cause extensive catastrophic wind damage over northern Luzon.  It will also drop heavy rain and there will be flash floods.  The flooding will be worse in areas of steeper slopes.  There will be a significant storm surge on the coast of extreme northeastern Luzon.

Typhoon Mangkhut will weaken while it crosses northern Luzon.  Mangkhut will then move quickly off to the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Typhoon Mangkhut could be near Hong Kong in about 30 hours.

Dangerous Typhoon Mangkhut Approaches Northern Luzon

Dangerous Typhoon Mangkhut approached northern Luzon on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Mangkhut was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 126.2°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) east-northeast of Manila.  Mangkhut was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 170 m.p.h. (280 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 205 m.p.h. (335 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 905 mb.

Typhoon Mangkhut has a large powerful circulation.  There is a circular eye with a diameter of about 30 miles (50 km) at the center of circulation.  A number of bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

Winds to typhoon force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 265 miles (425 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mangkhut was 38.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 33.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 72.2.  Those indices indicate that Typhoon Mangkhut is very similar in size and strength to what Hurricane Katrina was when Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.

Typhoon Mangkhut will move through an environment that is very favorable for strong typhoons during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Mangkhut will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an area where there will be little vertical wind shear.  It is difficult for a typhoon or hurricane to continue to generate enough upper level divergence to stay extremely strong for a long period of time.  However, Typhoon Mangkhut could remain the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale until it reaches northern Luzon.  Mangkhut will weaken when the center moves over northern Luzon.

Typhoon Mangkhut is moving south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge is steering Mangkhut toward the northwest and that general motion is forecast to continue.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Mangkhut will reach northern Luzon east of Tuguegarao in about 18 hours.  Mangkhut is capable of causing extensive catastrophic damage.  It will produce extremely strong winds over northern Luzon.  There will be a significant storm surge at the coast.  Locally heavy rain will cause flash floods.

Typhoon Mangkhut Strengthens Into Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Mangkhut strengthened into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Mangkhut was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 138.0°E which put it about 290 miles (470 km) north of Yap.  Mangkhut was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Typhoon Mangkhut is strong and well organized.  It has a symmetrical circulation with a circular eye at the center.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surround the eye and the strongest winds are occurring in the ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mangkhut.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping large quantities of mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

Typhoon Mangkhut has a large circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 210 miles (375 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mangkhut is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 22.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 57.1.  Typhoon Mangkhut is capable of causing extensive catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Mangkhut will be moving through an environment very favorable for powerful typhoons.  Mangkhut will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an area were the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Mangkhut could maintain its intensity for several more days unless eyewall replacement cycles cause fluctuations in the wind speed.

Typhoon Mangkhut is moving south a ridge of high pressure over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Mangkhut in a general west-northwesterly direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Mangkhut could approach northern Luzon in about three days.  Mangkhut could be near Hong Kong in about five days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Barijat was moving southeast of Hong Kong.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Barijat was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 116.5°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) southeast of Hong Kong.  Barijat was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Typhoon Mangkhut Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Mangkhut strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane as it moved west of Guam on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Mangkhut was located at latitude 14.0°N and longitude 140.6°E which put it about 230 miles (375 km) west of Guam.  Mangkhut was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.  Typhoon Mangkhut was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Typhoon Mangkhut intensified rapidly on Monday.  A circular eye was at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mangkhut.  Storms around the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Winds to typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 210 miles (335 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mangkhut was 28.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.1.

Typhoon Mangkhut will move through an environment capable of supporting very strong typhoons during the next two or three days.  Mangkhut will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Mangkhut is likely to remain very strong for the next few days.  Eyewall replacement cycles could cause fluctuations in intensity.

Typhoon Mangkhut will move south of a ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Mangkhut to the west during the next day or two.  Typhoon Mangkhut will move more toward the west-northwest later this week.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Mangkhut could be near northern Luzon in about four days.

Typhoon Mangkhut Brings Wind and Rain to the Marianas

Typhoon Mangkhut brought wind and rain to the Marianas on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Mangkhut was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 146.6°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) east-northeast of Guam.  Mangkhut was moving toward the west at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.  Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam.  The airport on Saipan was reporting sustained winds of 41 m.p.h. (66 km/h) and wind gusts to 61 m.p.h. (98 km/h).

Typhoon Mangkhut had a well organized circulation.  There was a circular eye at the center of Mangkhut.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mangkhut.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Winds to typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mangkhut was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index was 27.4.  Typhoon Mangkhut was capable of causing regional significant damage.

Typhoon Mangkhut will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Mangkhut will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge north of Mangkhut will cause easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Mangkhut could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

The ridge north of Typhoon Mangkhut will steer the typhoon in a westerly direction.  The core of Typhoon Mangkhut will move over the Marianas during the next few hours.  It will bring strong winds and it will drop locally heavy rain.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Mangkhut could be east of Luzon later this week.

Tropical Storm Mangkhut Causes Typhoon Watch for Marianas

Tropical Storm Mangkhut caused a Typhoon Watch to be issued for the Marianas on Saturday.  A Typhoon Watch was in effect for Guam, Rota, Saipan and Tinian.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Mangkhut was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 156.0°E which put it about 760 miles (1225 km) east of Guam.  Mangkhut was moving toward the west at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Mangkhut became much better organized on Saturday despite its rapid westward movement.  A primary band of thunderstorms wrapped around the southern side of the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be forming.  Winds near the core of Mangkhut were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Mangkhut.  The strongest rainbands were in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level ridge north of Mangkhut was producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and they were probably the reason why the strongest rainbands were west of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Mangkhut will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Mangkhut will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move into an area where the upper level winds are weaker and there will be less vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Mangkhut will intensify into a typhoon on Sunday and it could intensify rapidly once the inner core and eye are fully formed.

Tropical Storm Mangkhut will move south of a ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Mangkhut in a general westerly direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Mangkhut could reach the Marianas in about 36 hours.  It is likely to be a typhoon at that time.  Mangkhut could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Saipan and Tinian.