The northeasterly winds in the upper levels that were generating wind shear over Tropical Storm Rachel lessened on Saturday and it intensified into the 12th Eastern North Pacific hurricane of 2014.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Rachel was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 116.6°W which put it about 455 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Rachel was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed increased to 85 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure decreased to 982 mb.

An upper level ridge over northern Mexico that was generating northeasterly winds over the top of Rachel weakened as a large upper level trough moved over the western U.S.  As the vertical wind shear decreased, a ring of thunderstorms developed around the core of the circulation.  The formation of an eye and a tight inner core allowed the wind speed to increase rapidly to hurricane intensity.  The core of Rachel will remain in an environment that could support further intensification during the next 12-18 hours.  Eventually, the upper level trough will increase the wind shear again and the hurricane will move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs).  Those factors will produce a weakening trend early next week.

The upper level trough is helping to pull Rachel northward.  However, it looks like the trough will move eastward before it can sweep Rachel toward the northeast.  Recent guidance from the numerical models suggest that as the trough moves away to the east, Rachel will stall.  If it stalls over cooler SSTs, then it will be steered more by lower level winds, once the tall thunderstorms around the eye dissipate.  Those winds could push the lower level remnant circulation slowly toward the west or southwest;