Typhoon Vongfong has made the anticipated turn and it is now moving toward the north.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT the center of Typhoon Vongfong was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 129.5°E which put it about 440 miles south-southeast of Okinawa.  Vongfong was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 185 m.p.h.

Vongfong is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system, which should continue to steer it in a generally northerly direction for the next 36-48 hours.  When Vongfong nears southwestern Japan, it will begin to encounter upper level westerly winds, which will push it toward the northeast.  The model guidance suggest that Vongfong could be very near the coast of Japan in about 72 hours.

Microwave satellite imagery suggests that a larger outer eye is wrapping around a small inner eye that represents the current center of Vongfong.  The start of an eyewall replacement cycle usually produces weakening of a tropical cyclone, although there can be some fluctuations in intensity.  When Vongfong gets closer to Japan, upper level westerly winds will increase the vertical wind shear.  More wind shear will speed up the weakening trend.  Current guidance suggests that Vongfong could still be a typhoon when it approaches Japan in about three days.  However, it is likely to weaken to a strong tropical storm as it moves across parts of Japan.  Even if it does weaken, Vongfong could still bring gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.