A tropical wave, currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Windward Islands on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 62.0°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) west-northwest of Trinidad. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was moving toward the west-northwest at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the coast of Venezuela from Peninsula de Paraguana to the border with Colombia. A Tropical Storm Warning was also issued for the coast of Colombia from Santa Marta to the border with Venezuela. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao and Grenada. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Perdanales to Cumana, Venezuela.
A tropical wave speeding into the southeastern Caribbean Sea brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Windward Islands on Tuesday night. Aircraft reconnaissance and surface observations indicated that the wave did not have a well defined center of circulation at the surface. So, the tropical was was still designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.
Satellite images suggested that the circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was exhibiting more organization. Thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in bands in the northern part of the tropical wave. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The winds in the southern half of the system were blowing at less than tropical storm force. Storms near the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two began to generate upper level divergence.
The tropical wave will move south of the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave toward the west. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move near the northern coast of South America during the next 36 hours. It could reach Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao in less than 24 hours.
The tropical wave will move through an environment that is mostly favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the winds in the troposphere will blow from the east at most levels and there will be little vertical wind shear. The southern part of the wave will move over northern parts of Venezuela and Colombia. Southerly winds flowing into the tropical wave could bring drier air from South America into the southern part of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. If the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two remains over the Caribbean Sea, then the circulation around the tropical wave could gradually become more organized during the next 24 hours. If a distinct center of circulation forms at the surface, then the tropical wave would be classified as a tropical storm.