Hurricane Gonzalo completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Wednesday and it is now stronger than it was.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Gonzalo was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 68.7°W which put it about 525 miles south-southwest of Bermuda.  Gonzalo was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. which made Gonzalo a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  It had a Hurricane Intensity Index of 28.3, a Hurricane Size Index of 13.9 and a HI of 42.2, which means it was capable of producing regional serious damage.  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.  A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Bermuda.

Gonzalo is moving around the western end of a high pressure system located toward its east.  Southwesterly winds on the leading edge of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. are expected to turn Gonzalo toward the north-northeast.  The stronger winds in the upper level trough will also make Gonzalo start to move faster.  Gonzalo is likely to approach Bermuda on Friday afternoon.

Gonzalo is still in a environment that can support a major hurricane.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the upper level winds are relatively light.  When the upper level trough begins to affect Gonzalo, stronger winds will generate more wind shear and the hurricane should begin to weaken.  However, Gonzalo could still be a Major Hurricane when it reaches Bermuda.  After Gonzalo moves north of Bermuda, the weakening trend will continue as cooler SSTs and drier air affect the hurricane.  Gonzalo will make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone as it moves across the North Atlantic.

Gonzalo is forecast to take a track very similar to the one taken by Hurricane Fabian in 2003.  Fabian was a Major Hurricane that hit Bermuda.  Fabian did much damage to roofs and vegetation and it did an estimated 300 million dollars of property damage.  Winds speeds were greater at higher elevations.  Fabian also generated large waves and a storm surge of ten feet on the south shore of Bermuda.