Tropical Storm Pakhar developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean northeast of the Philippines on Sunday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Pakhar was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 127.5°E which put it about 470 miles (755 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Pakhar was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system northeast of the Philippines strengthened on Sunday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Pakhar. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Pakhar’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Pakhar. Storms near the center of Pakhar generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Pakhar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Pakhar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough east of China will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Pakhar’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Pakhar could strengthen during the next 18 hours. The upper level trough will move closer to Pakhar on Monday and the upper level winds will get stronger. More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Pakhar to weaken early next week.

The upper level trough over eastern China will steer Tropical Storm Pakhar toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Pakhar will move farther away from the Philippines. When the vertical wind shear increases on Monday, strong upper level winds could blow the top off of Tropical Storm Pakhar. If that happens, then Pakhar will be steered by winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Those winds could steer Pakhar back toward the southwest early next week.