Tag Archives: Tropical Storm Pakhar

Pakhar Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Pakhar weakened to a tropical depression over the Western North Pacific Ocean northeast of the Philippines on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Pakhar was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 131.1°E which put it about 745 miles (1205 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Pakhar was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

After strengthening on Sunday, former Tropical Storm Pakhar weakened to a tropical depression on Monday. An upper level trough west of Japan produced strong southwesterly winds that blew across the top of Pakhar’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear and they blew the top of former Tropical Storm Pakhar away to the northeast of the lower level circulation. The circulation around Tropical Depression Pakhar on Monday afternoon consisted of a swirl of showers and lower clouds. Any clouds that grew higher into the atmosphere were quickly sheared apart by the strong upper level winds.

The circulation around Tropical Depression Pakhar will spin down gradually during the next 24 hours. Pakhar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level trough west of Japan will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear will prevent the development of new thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Pakhar.

Since the circulation around Tropical Depression Pakhar only exists in the lower levels of the atmosphere, it will be steered by the winds near the surface. Northeasterly winds will push Pakhar back toward the southwest. On its anticipated track, the circulation around Tropical Depression Pakhar should dissipate east of the Philippines during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Pakhar Develops Northeast of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Pakhar developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean northeast of the Philippines on Sunday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Pakhar was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 127.5°E which put it about 470 miles (755 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Pakhar was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system northeast of the Philippines strengthened on Sunday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Pakhar. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Pakhar’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Pakhar. Storms near the center of Pakhar generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Pakhar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Pakhar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough east of China will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Pakhar’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Pakhar could strengthen during the next 18 hours. The upper level trough will move closer to Pakhar on Monday and the upper level winds will get stronger. More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Pakhar to weaken early next week.

The upper level trough over eastern China will steer Tropical Storm Pakhar toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Pakhar will move farther away from the Philippines. When the vertical wind shear increases on Monday, strong upper level winds could blow the top off of Tropical Storm Pakhar. If that happens, then Pakhar will be steered by winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Those winds could steer Pakhar back toward the southwest early next week.

Tropical Storm Pakhar Makes Landfall Near Macau

Tropical Storm Pakhar sped across the South China Sea and made landfall on the coast of China near Macau.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Pakhar was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 112.7°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of Hong Kong.  Pakhar was moving toward the northwest at 27 m.p.h. (43 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Storm Pakhar will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain as it quickly moves inland over southern China.  The wind and rain will hinder the efforts in the area to recover from Typhoon Hato.  Fortunately, Tropical Storm Pakhar is a fairly small storm.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  The small size of Pakhar and its rapid rate of movement will limit the impact of the tropical storm.  Tropical Storm Pakhar should spin down fairly quickly as it rapidly moves inland.

Tropical Storm Pakhar Forms East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Pakhar formed east of Luzon on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Pakhar was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 124.7°E which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Pakhar was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A center of circulation developed on the eastern edge of a cluster of thunderstorms east of Luzon on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Pakhar.  The circulation of Pakhar is still in the early organizational stages.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms are occurring west of the center of circulation.  An upper level ridge north of Pakhar is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the circulation.  Those easterly winds are probably responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms on the western side of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Pakhar will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Pakhar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  The easterly winds in the upper levels are causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Pakhar will weaken when it moves across Luzon.  After Pakhar moves out over the South China Sea, it will move back over water where the SST is near 30°C.  The forecast suggests that there could be less vertical wind shear at that time and Pakhar has a chance to intensify into a typhoon when it moves away from the Philippines.

Pakhar is being steered westward by a subtropical ridge north of the tropical storm.  Pakhar is forecast to turn more toward the northwest when it crosses Luzon.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Pakhar will reach the coast of Luzon near Baler in 12 to 18 hours.  Pakhar is forecast to continue moving toward the northwest and it could make another landfall in China west of Hong Kong in about three days.  However, there is more uncertainty about the future track of Pakhar after the tropical storm exits Luzon.

Tropical Storm Pakhar could bring heavy rain to Luzon and cause flooding in some locations.  If Tropical Storm Pakhar intensifies over the South China Sea and makes landfall west of Hong Kong as a typhoon, it could seriously affect the efforts to recover from damage caused by Typhoon Hato which hit that same area a few days ago.