Tropical Cyclone Freddy Churns Westward

Tropical Cyclone Freddy churned westward over the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 89.3°E which put it about 1315 miles (2120 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy started to intensify again when it moved into a more favorable environment on Tuesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was present at the center of Freddy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours, but the wind shear is not likely to be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to strengthen back to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move south of Diego Garcia in four or five days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani started a transition to an extratropical cyclone. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 22.7°S and longitude 71.5°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) east-southeast of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.