Powerful Typhoon Mawar continued to get bigger and stronger on Thursday as it moved west of the Marianas. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 138.6°E which put it about 385 miles (625 km) west-northwest of Guam. Mawar was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 225 m.p.h. (360 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 895 mb.

Typhoon Mawar continued to intensify on Thursday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas. A circular eye with a diameter of 26 miles (43 km) was present at the center of Mawar’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mawar. Storms near the core of Mawar’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to continue to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon was large. Winds to typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Typhoon Mawar. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (335 km) from the center of Mawar. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mawar was 44.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 66.6. Typhoon Mawar was as strong as Hurricane Dorian was when Dorian hit the Bahamas in 2019. Mawar was much larger than Dorian was.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Mawar is likely to maintain much of its intensity during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then a new eyewall replacement cycle could cause Mawar to weaken temporarily.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the southern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. T he high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mawar will continue to move farther away from the Marianas. Mawar could move south of the Ryukyu Islands by the end of the weekend.