Typhoon Mawar slowed over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of the Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 125.0°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) south of Miyakojima, Japan. Mawar was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Typhoon Mawar weakened as it moved slowly toward the Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday. The circulation around Mawar appeared to pull drier air from Asia into the northwestern part of the typhoon. Thunderstorms in bands in the northwestern quadrant of Typhoon Mawar weakened on Tuesday. The northwestern part of the eyewall also weakened. Most of the remaining thunderstorms were occurring in the southern half of Typhoon Mawar. Storms near the center of Mawar’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. The divergence of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of Typhoon Mawar and the surface pressure continued to increase.

Even though Typhoon Mawar was weaker, it continued to have a large circulation after several eyewall replacement cycles. Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Mawar. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (360 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Drier air will persist northwest of Typhoon Mawar. The drier air will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the northern half of Mawar’s circulation. In addition, since Typhoon Mawar is moving slowly, winds in the lower levels are likely to mix cooler water to the surface of the Pacific Ocean. The effects of the drier air and mixing of cooler water to the surface of the ocean are likely to cause Typhoon Mawar to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar slowly toward the north during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Mawar will be near Miyakojima in 36 hours. Mawar could be near Okinawa in less than 72 hours.