Typhoon Mawar moved toward the southern Ryukyu Islands on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 125.5°E which put it about 330 miles (535 km) south of Miyakojima, Japan. Mawar was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Mawar was in an equilibrium with its environment during much of the past 24 hours. The inner end of a rainband recently wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall and another pair of concentric eyewalls developed. The inner eye had a diameter of 30 miles (50 km). The inner eyewall was surrounded by a clear area, called a moat, and a much larger outer eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls. The strongest rainbands were in the southern half of Mawar’s circulation. Storms near the concentric eyewalls generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. The upper level divergence pumped away an amount of mass that was nearly equal to the mass converging in the lower levels of Mawar’s circulation. Since the upper level divergence was nearly equal to the lower level convergence, Typhoon Mawar maintained a nearly steady intensity during the past 24 hours.

The circulation around Typhoon Mawar continued to be large. Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Mawar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Mawar. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mawar was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.7. Typhoon Mawar was similar in intensity to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit Southwest Louisiana in 2005. Mawar was a little smaller than Rita was.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for a strong typhoon during the next 24 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Although the environment is favorable, the formation of concentric eyewalls is likely to start an eyewall replacement cycle that will cause Typhoon Mawar to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the north during the next 36 hours. The steering winds will weaken as Mawar moves around the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mawar will move slowly toward the southern Ryukyu Islands during the next 36 hours.