Typhoon Guchol turned toward the northeast on Saturday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Guchol was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 131.3°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) south of Minamidiatojima, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Typhoon Guchol started to turn toward the northeast on Saturday, as it was affected by an upper level trough west of Japan. The upper level trough was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Guchol’s circulation. Those winds were causing the vertical wind shear to increase and the increasing shear was affecting the structure of Typhoon Guchol. There was still an eye at the center of Guchol’s circulation, but thunderstorms were only occurring in the eastern part of the eyewall. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the eastern half of the typhoon. Bands in the western half of Typhoon Guchol consisted primarily of showers and low clouds. Storms in the eastern side of Guchol generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Guchol. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Guchol will move through an environment that will become even less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level trough west of Japan will continue to produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Guchol’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase even more. The increase in wind shear will make the environment even less favorable for intensification. Typhoon Guchol will weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough west of Japan will steer Typhoon Guchol toward the northeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Guchol could pass between Minamidaitojima and Iwo To during the next 24 hours. Guchol will pass south of Tokyo in less than 48 hours.