Tag Archives: 03W

Guchol Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Typhoon Guchol weakened to a tropical storm over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of Japan on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Guchol was located at latitude 27.4°N and longitude 136.0°E which put it about 650 miles (1050 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Former Typhoon Guchol weakened to a tropical storm on Sunday when it moved into a less favorable environment. An upper level trough west of Japan produced westerly winds that blew toward the top of Guchol’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear caused Guchol to weaken. There was no longer an eye at the center of Guchol’s circulation. Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Guchol. Bands in the western and southern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Guchol generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. The upper level trough west of Japan will continue to produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Guchol’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Guchol will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler water and is affected by moderate vertical wind shear. Guchol could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone early next week.

The upper level trough west of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Guchol toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Guchol will pass south of Tokyo in less than 24 hours.

Typhoon Guchol Turns Northeast

Typhoon Guchol turned toward the northeast on Saturday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Guchol was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 131.3°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) south of Minamidiatojima, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Typhoon Guchol started to turn toward the northeast on Saturday, as it was affected by an upper level trough west of Japan. The upper level trough was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Guchol’s circulation. Those winds were causing the vertical wind shear to increase and the increasing shear was affecting the structure of Typhoon Guchol. There was still an eye at the center of Guchol’s circulation, but thunderstorms were only occurring in the eastern part of the eyewall. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the eastern half of the typhoon. Bands in the western half of Typhoon Guchol consisted primarily of showers and low clouds. Storms in the eastern side of Guchol generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Guchol. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Guchol will move through an environment that will become even less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level trough west of Japan will continue to produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Guchol’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase even more. The increase in wind shear will make the environment even less favorable for intensification. Typhoon Guchol will weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough west of Japan will steer Typhoon Guchol toward the northeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Guchol could pass between Minamidaitojima and Iwo To during the next 24 hours. Guchol will pass south of Tokyo in less than 48 hours.

Typhoon Guchol Moves North

Typhoon Guchol moved toward the north over the Western North Pacific Ocean on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Guchol was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 130.0°E which put it about 465 miles (750 km) south of Minamidiatojima, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Typhoon Guchol was showing evidence of weakening on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) was at the center of Guchol’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. There was a break in the northwestern part of the ring of storms. Other thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and eastern sides of Typhoon Guchol. Bands in the northern and western parts of Guchol’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Guchol. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Guchol will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. Typhoon Guchol will move closer to an upper level trough west of Japan. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the northern part of Guchol’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The increase in wind shear will make the environment less favorable for intensification. Typhoon Guchol could weaken during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Guchol will move around the western part of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Guchol toward the north during the next 24 hours. The upper level trough west of Japan will steer Guchol toward the northeast during the weekend. On its anticipated track Typhoon Guchol could pass between Minamidaitojima and Iwo To during fthe weekend.

Guchol Strengthens to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Guchol strengthened to a typhoon on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Guchol was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 131.6°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) south of Minamidiatojima, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Guchol strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas on Wednesday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Typhoon Guchol. A circular eye was visible on satellite images at the center of Guchol’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core or Typhoon Guchol. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Guchol. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Guchol will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Guchol is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Guchol will move around the western part of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Guchol toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. Guchol will move toward the northeast later this week after it passes the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Typhoon Guchol could be between Minamidaitojima and Iwo To in four days.

Tropical Storm Guchol Intensifies

Tropical Storm Guchol intensified over the Western North Pacific Ocean on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Guchol was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 132.8°E which put it about 715 miles (1155 km) south of Minamidiatojima, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Guchol intensified over the warm water in the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas on Wednesday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Guchol’s circulation and an eye appeared to be forming at the center. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Guchol. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Guchol.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Guchol will intensify during the next 36 hours. Guchol could strengthen to a typhoon within 18 hours.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move around the western part of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Guchol toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Guchol will move farther away from the Marianas. Guchol could be south of Minamidaitojima in four days.

Tropical Storm Guchol Forms West of Marianas

Tropical Storm Guchol formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Guchol was located at latitude 114.6°N and longitude 134.6°E which put it about 785 miles (1265 km) south-southeast of Minamidiatojima, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas strengthened on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Guchol. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Guchol was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring bands in the southern half of Guchol’s circulation. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Guchol.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Guchol will intensify during the next 36 hours. Guchol could strengthen to a typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move around the western part of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Guchol toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Guchol will move farther away from the Marianas. Guchol could be south of Minamidaitojima in five days.

Typhoon Malakas Intensifies Southwest of Iwo To

Typhoon Malakas intensified southwest of Iwo To on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Malakas was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 135.2°E which put it about 740 miles (1195 km) southwest of Two To. Malakas was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Malakas intensified more quickly over the Western North Pacific Ocean southwest of Iwo To on Tuesday morning. A circular eye developed at the center of Malakas’ circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Malakas. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Malakas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Malakas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Malakas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Malakas’ circulation. The winds at lower levels in the atmosphere will also blow from the south and there will not be much vertical wind shear. Typhoon Malakas will intensify during the next 24 hours. Malakas could undergo a period of rapid intensification since an inner core with an eye and an eyewall has developed. Typhoon Malakas could strengthen to a the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Malakas will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Malakas toward the north during that time period. Typhoon Malakas will move toward the northeast after it moves around the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Malakas could approach Iwo To in 48 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Megi weakened just east of the Philippines. There were reports of mudslides and casualties caused by heavy rain dropped by Megi. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Megi was located at latitude 11.0°N and longitude 126.0°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east of Guiuan, Philippines. Megi was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Malakas Intensifies to a Typhoon North of Yap

Former Tropical Storm Malakas intensified to a typhoon north of Yap on Monday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Malakas was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 135.6°E which put it about 365 miles (585 km) north-northwest of Yap. Malakas was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Malakas intensified to a typhoon on Monday over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western, southern and eastern sides of the center of Malakas. An eyewall appeared to be forming, but the rainband had not yet wrapped completely around the northern side of the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Malakas. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Malakas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Malakas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Malakas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Malakas’ circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to prevent strengthening. Typhoon Malakas will intensify during the next 36 hours. Malakas could intensify more rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develops. Typhoon Malakas could strengthen to a the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Malakas will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Malakas toward the north during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Malakas will remain west of the Marianas during the next several days. Malakas will move toward the northeast after it moves around the western end of the high pressure system. Typhoon Malakas could approach Iwo To in three days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Megi dropped heavy rain over the central Philippines. There were reports of mudslides and casualties caused by the heavy rain. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Megi was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 124.0°E which put it about 40 miles (65 km) south-southeast of Placer, Philippines. Megi was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Malakas Passes Between Guam and Yap

Tropical Storm Malakas passed between Guam and Yap on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Malakas was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 139.7°E which put it about 345 miles (555 km) west of Guam. Malakas was moving toward the northwest at 29 m.p.h (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Storm Malakas brought gusty winds and heavy rain to Fais on Saturday night as it passed between Guam and Yap. The circulation around Malakas strengthened on Saturday. The heaviest rain was occurring in a band that was wrapping around the southern side of the center of Tropical Storm Malakas. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Malakas. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Malakas.

Tropical Storm Malakas will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Malakas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Malakas’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Storm Malakas will intensify during the next 36 hours. Malakas could strengthen to a typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Malakas will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Malakas toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Malakas will remain west of the Marianas during the next several days. Malakas will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. Malakas could approach Iwo To in four days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Depression 03W strengthened to Tropical Storm Megi near the Philippines. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Megi was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 125.9°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) east of Guiuan, Philippines. Megi was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb. Tropical Storm Megi could drop heavy rain over Samar and Leyte. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Malakas Spins South-southwest of Guam

Tropical Storm Malakas spun south-southwest of Guam on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Malakas was located at latitude 7.4°N and longitude 144.1°E which put it about 460 miles (740 km) south-southwest of Guam. Malakas was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

An upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific strengthened on Friday and that increased the vertical wind shear affecting Tropical Storm Malakas. The increased wind shear prevented Malakas from strengthening on Friday. When the upper level ridge strengthened, the easterly winds blowing toward the top of Malakas’ circulation strengthened. Those stronger upper level winds increased the vertical wind shear and they caused the distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Malakas to become asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Malakas’ circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Malakas will move through an environment more favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Malakas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Malakas’ circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear is forecast to decrease during the weekend. Tropical Storm Malakas will intensify during the next 36 hours. Malakas could strengthen to a typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Malakas will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Malakas toward the northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Malakas could pass between Guam and Yap during the weekend.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 03W developed east of the Philippines. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression 03W was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 126.8°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) southeast of Legazpi, Philippines. The tropical depression was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.