A low pressure system has formed at the surface along the western end of a stationary front over the Bay of Campeche.  It is possible that this low pressure system could intensify into a tropical cyclone and the National Hurricane Center has tasked a reconnaissance plane to investigate the low tomorrow, if necessary.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the low was centered at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 95.5°W which put it about 50 miles east of Veracruz, Mexico and about 940 miles west-southwest of Key West, Florida.  The low as moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The low is over Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) that are warmer than 29°C and the southern Gulf of Mexico is a location where we see tropical cyclones develop late in the hurricane season.  On the other hand, westerly winds in the upper levels are creating wind shear over the low pressure system and there is drier air over the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico.  Those two factors will inhibit intensification of the system and so tropical development of the low could be slow.  If thunderstorms do develop near the center of the low, it will remain over warm SSTs while it is in the Gulf of Mexico and it could become a tropical storm.

There is westerly flow in the middle and upper levels over the Gulf of Mexico and that flow is likely to push the low pressure system toward the east.  The low could move slowly during a period while it is organizing.  If an area of deep thunderstorms forms, then the middle and upper level winds could push the low eastward more quickly.  The low could approach southwestern Florida later this week.