Hurricane Lee Moves Northeast of the Leeward Islands

Hurricane Lee moved northeast of the Leeward Islands on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Lee was located at latitude 21.0°N and longitude 59.9°W which put it about 285 miles (455 km) northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Lee was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Hurricane Lee was in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle on Saturday evening. A small eye was at the center of Lee’s circulation. The small eye was surrounded by a tight ring of thunderstorms. The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. A second eyewall surrounded the small eye and inner eyewall. The eyewall replacement cycle and some vertical wind shear caused Hurricane Lee to weaken on Saturday. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the two concentric eyewalls. Storms near the center of Lee’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of Hurricane Lee’s circulation to increase. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Lee’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.4.

Hurricane Lee will move through an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Lee will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and there will be less vertical wind shear. Hurricane Lee is likely to weaken on Sunday until the eyewall replacement cycle is completed, even though Lee will move into a more favorable environment. After the inner eyewall dissipates, low level convergence will increase into the larger outer eyewall. When the low level convergence becomes more concentrated in the outer eyewall, then Hurricane Lee could start to intensify again.

Hurricane Lee will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Lee toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lee could be north of the Puerto Rico by early next week.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Margot gradually intensified west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Margot was located at latitude 21.6°N and longitude 39.1°W which put it about 1060 miles (1705 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Margot was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.