A small cluster of thunderstorms north of Tahiti organized rapidly on Tuesday and it has now been classified as Tropical Cyclone Niko.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niko was centered at latitude 14.1°S and longitude 150.2°W which put it about 250 miles north-northwest of Papeete, Tahiti and about 220 miles northeast of Bora-Bora.  Niko was moving toward the south-southeast at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 65 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was estimated to be 989 mb.

The circulation around Niko is small and winds to tropical storm force only extend about 80 miles from the center.  The small circulation is in an area of lighter winds in the upper levels.  The modest wind shear allowed thunderstorms to develop rapidly around the center of circulation and Niko organized quickly during the past 12 hours.  Niko is currently over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and it is in an environment favorable for intensification.  Small tropical cyclones can intensify rapidly and Niko has the potential to do so during the next 24 hours.  It could reach typhoon intensity on Wednesday.

A combination of a near equatorial ridge and a subtropical ridge are steering Niko in a south-southeasterly direction and this general motion is expected to continue.  The projected path takes the center of Niko east of Tahiti.  However, it could move near some smaller islands including Mataiva, Makate, and Tikehau.  Given the small size of the circulation, the area of damage is likely to be limited, but any place getting hit directly by the center of circulation could see wind damage.