A low level circulation is organizing quickly in an area of thunderstorms northwest of Western Australia and the system has been classified as Tropical Cyclone Olwyn.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Olwyn was located at latitude16.6°S and longitude 116.1°E which put it about 280 miles north of Karratha and about 390 miles north-northeast of Exmouth, Australia.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 60 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Olwyn is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and it is in an area where the upper level winds are very weak.  The favorable environment has allowed thunderstorms to grow rapidly and the circulation has developed upper level outflow which is pumping out mass and allowing the pressure to decrease.  Owlyn is expected to remain in a favorable environment until it makes landfall in Western Australia.  It should continue to intensify and a period of rapid intensification is possible.

Olwyn is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the south.  That general steering pattern is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its projected track, Olwyn could approach the coast of Western Australia between Onslow and Exmouth in a about 36 hours.

Olwyn has the potential to cause significant wind damage and generate a storm surge near where the center makes landfall.  In addition, it could produce locally heavy rainfall and the potential for floods as it moves inland.