Tropical Cyclone Nathan Lingering Off Coast of Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Nathan moved slowly toward the northern coast of Queensland on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nathan was located at latitude 13.5°S and longitude 145.3°E which put it about 110 miles north of Cooktown, Australia and about 70 miles east of Cape Flattery.  Nathan was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 85 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

The eastern half of the circulation around Nathan was being affected by some of the upper level outflow from large Tropical Cyclone Pam to the east.  The outflow from Pam was creating vertical wind shear over the eastern half of Nathan and inhibiting convection on that side of the circulation.  In addition, Nathan is close enough to the coast of Queensland that interaction with land could be affecting some of the circulation on the western side of the storm.  Despite those negative influences, Nathan is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the wind speeds increased slightly on Wednesday.

Numerical guidance continues to suggest that a near equatorial ridge will build north of Nathan and stop its westward motion.  The ridge is projected to eventually push Nathan back toward the east later this week.  The center of Nathan is within 70 miles of the coast of Queensland, and even if it turns back toward the east it could bring high winds and a storm surge to a portion of the coast near Cape Flattery.