Tropical Cyclone 03S formed east of Madagascar on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03S was centered at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 53.2°E which put it about 330 miles (530 km) east-northeast of Toamasina, Madagascar.  It was moving a little south of due west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A well defined center of circulation developed within a cluster of thunderstorms passing north of La Reunion on Tuesday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and the system exhibited the characteristics of a tropical cyclone.  The innermost end of the primary  rainband wrapped tightly around the eastern side of the center of circulation, while the rest of the band coiled around the northern and western parts of the tropical cyclone.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming outside the core of the system.  Thunderstorms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  Tropical Cyclone 03S is in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Warm water and little shear will allow Tropical Cyclone 03S to intensify and it could intensify rapidly.  The system is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 03S is moving along the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is currently steering the system toward the west.  However, Tropical Cyclone 03S is likely to move more toward the southwest when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 03S could approach the east coast of Madagascar in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 03S is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it reaches Madagascar.  It will bring strong gusty winds to eastern Madagascar.  The outer rainbands on the western side of Tropical Cyclone 03S are already dropping heavy rain on parts of eastern Madagascar.  Continued heavy could create dangerous floods in some locations.