The center of Tropical Cyclone Nathan moved across the northeastern portion of Arnhem Land and it has emerged over the Arafura Sea.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nathan was located at latitude 11.6°S and longitude 134.7°E which put it about 45 miles northeast of Maningrida, about 35 miles north-northwest of Milingimbi and about 280 miles east-northeast of Darwin, Australia.  Nathan was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 95 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

The core of the circulation was relatively intact when the center of Nathan moved back over water and it had an apparent eye on some satellite imagery and radar displays.  The surface temperatures are quite warm in the Arafura Sea and thunderstorms continue to develop around the southern and western sides of the circulation.  Less convection is occurring on the eastern side of Nathan.  It is possible the moving across land and proximity to the coast is allowing some drier air to be entrained into the circulation.  Light westerly winds in the upper levels may also be creating some vertical wind shear.  The intact core and warm water could allow Nathan to intensify somewhat on Monday.

Nathan is being steered toward the west by a subtropical ridge located to its south.  The ridge is expected to continue to steer Nathan in a general westerly direction for another 24 hours.  The projected track would keep the center of circulation over water.  The ridge is expected to weaken a bit in a day or so, which could allow Nathan turn southwestward and make another landfall on the north coast of Australia.  The southwesterly turn could produce a landfall between Maningrida and Croker Island.

Nathan has a relatively small circulation but it is strong enough to cause wind damage and a significant storm surge near where the center makes landfall.  It could also produce locally heavy rainfall and flooding in inland areas.