Tag Archives: New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Ula Intensifies Rapidly, Threatens Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Ula intensified rapidly on Friday as it started to move toward Vanuatu.  At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ula was located at latitude 18.7°S and longitude 173.5°E which put it about 545 miles (880 km) east-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia.  Ula was moving toward the southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 95 m.p.h, (155 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ula intensified rapidly on Friday because it was in a very favorable environment.  Satellite images showed that there is a 15 mile (24 km) wide eye at the center of Ula.  Additional spiral bands are rotating outside the core of the tropical cyclone.  Ula has a very symmetrical structure.  Thunderstorms in the core of Ula are creating upper level divergence, especially to the west of the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ula is in an environment favorable for further intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level ridge to the east of Ula is producing northeasterly winds over the top of the tropical cyclone.  However, the vertical wind shear is only modest and further intensification is possible.  Tropical Cyclone Ula could become the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

A subtropical ridge east of Ula is starting to steer the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ula could approach the southern islands of Vanuatu in about 48 hours.  It could be a very strong tropical cyclone when it nears those islands.

Tropical Cyclone Ula Intensifies, Could Threaten Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Ula moved into a more favorable environment and it intensified on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ula was located at latitude 18.7°S and longitude 174.4°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) west of Suva, Fiji.  Ula was moving toward the northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ula has been moving slowly equatorward this week and it is now over slightly warmer Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs).  Ula has extracted additional energy from the warmer water and the strength of thunderstorms near the core of the tropical cyclone increased.  The structure of the circulation is more symmetrical and an eyewall may be forming around the center of Ula.  The thunderstorms are also generating more upper level divergence, especially to the west of the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Ula is once again in a region that is favorable for intensification.  It is back over water where the SSTs are near 28°C.  An upper level ridge east of Ula is generating northeasterly winds over the top of the tropical cyclone, but the vertical wind shear is modest.  Tropical cyclone is likely to intensify further during the next 24 hours and it could become the equivalent of a hurricane on Friday.

Ula has been moving slowly northwest around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is forecast to slowly strengthen during the next few days.  As the ridge strengthens it will start to steer Ula more toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ula could move toward Vanuatu.

Tropical Cyclone Solo (23P) Intensifying Slowly Over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Solo (23P) intensified slowly over the Coral Sea on Friday.  At 6:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Solo was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 161.1°E which put it about 470 miles northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia and about 470 miles west of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Solo was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 80 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Solo is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures, but an upper level high to the east of it is producing northerly winds over the top of the circulation.  The vertical wind shear is causing more of the stronger thunderstorms to be located south of the center and it is inhibiting the intensification of Solo.  As a result it is intensifying slowly and that trend is expected to continue for the next day or two.  Eventually, when Solo moves to a higher latitude, stronger upper level winds will create more vertical wind shear and weaken it.

Solo is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  As it gets farther south, Solo is expected to move more toward the southeast.  On its projected track, Solo would approach New Caledonia in about 36 hours.  It could be near hurricane intensity at that time.  Solo could bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to New Caledonia when it moves past.

Tropical Cyclone 23P Organizes Rapidly Over the Coral Sea

A well organized circulation developed rapidly within an area of thunderstorms over the Coral Sea and the system was designated Tropical Cyclone 23P.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 23P was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 160.5°E which put it about 670 miles northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia and about 600 miles west-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  It was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 65 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 23P is located in an area where the upper level winds are light.  That allowed thunderstorms to develop and wrap around the core of the circulation.  Upper level divergence is pumping out mass in all directions and the pressure is decreasing.  The tropical cyclone is over Sea Surface Temperatures which are near 30°C, which means there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean to support further intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 23P could reach hurricane intensity in a day or two.

The tropical cyclone is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering it toward the southwest.  As it moves around the end of the ridge, it will turn more toward the southeast.  On its expected track Tropical Cyclone 23P could approach New Caledonia in 48 to 72 hours.

Intense Tropical Cyclone Pam Moving Over Southeastern Vanuatu

Very intense Tropical Cyclone Pam has been moving over some of the southeastern islands of Vanuatu  during Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pam was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 169.1°E which put ti about 10 miles northwest of Tanna, Vanuatu and about 120 miles northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia.  Pam was moving toward the south at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. and it was estimated that there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

The center of Pam moved very close to the islands of Efate, Erromango and Tanna.  Given the size and intensity of the circulation, it is likely that it caused significant damage on those islands.  Pam may have reached its peak intensity and there are some indications that it could be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle.  Some fluctuation or decrease in intensity is likely during the next 24 hours.

The center of Pam is projected to pass east of New Caledonia.  However, it may get close enough to cause significant damage, especially to the islands of Ouvea, Lifou and Mare, which will be closer to the center of circulation.  Pam should begin to weaken more quickly as it moves farther south in the general direction of New Zealand.

 

Pam Reaches Equivalent of Category 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Pam continued to intensify on Thursday and it has attained an intensity equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 5:00 p.m. the center of Tropical Cyclone Pam was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 169.6°E which put it about 100 miles east of Maewo, Vanuatu and about 560 miles northwest of Fiji.  Pam was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. and it was estimated that there could be wind gusts to 200 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Pam is in an almost ideal environment for a tropical cyclone.  The Sea Surface Temperatures are warm and the upper level winds are very light.  It has a well developed circulation with a tight inner core.  Upper level divergence is pumping out mass in all directions.  Some further intensification is possible during the shorter term.  Eventually, when Pam moves farther south in a couple of days, it will move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and into a region where the upper level winds are stronger.  At that time it should start a steady weakening trend.  In the interim eyewall replacement cycles could produce fluctuations in intensity, but Pam is likely to be a big strong tropical cyclone for several more days.

An upper level ridge to the east of Pam is steering it generally toward the south.  It has moved a little west of due south today and that has brought the western part of the circulation closer to Vanuatu.  Any further westward movement could bring strong winds very close to Maewo, Pentecote, Ambrym, Epi, Efate and numerous smaller islands in southeastern Vanuatu.  Pam is a large, strong tropical cyclone and it is capable of causing serious damage on any island it crosses.

 

Tropical Cyclone Pam Still Intensifying

Tropical Cyclone Pam continued to intensify on Wednesday and it is now the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pam was located at latitude 12.6°S and longitude 170.2°E which put it about 200 miles northeast of Espiritu Santo and about 670 miles northwest of Fiji.  Pam was moving toward the south-southeast at 6 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 160 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

A large eye formed in the center of Pam and the strongest winds are occurring in the ring of thunderstorms surrounding the eye.  Pam is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are fairly light.  As a result, it has developed strong upper level outflow in most directions.  The environment is favorable for further intensification, but strong tropical cyclones often go through eyewall replacement cycles which produce fluctuations in the intensity

Pam is being steered southward by an subtropical ridge to the east of the tropical cyclone.  This general steering pattern is expected to continue during the next several days.  The projected path of Pam takes the center east of Vanuatu and New Caledonia and west of Fiji.  However, a slight deviation to the west could bring strong winds to some of the islands of Vanuatu.

Tropical Cyclone Pam Intensifying Quickly

Tropical Cyclone Pam continued to intensify quickly on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pam was located at latitude 11.0°S and longitude 169.8°E which put it about 710 miles northwest of Fiji and about 220 miles north-northeast of Espiritu Santo.  Pam was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Pam remains in a very favorable environment.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and it is in a region of light upper level winds.  The strong core of the tropical cyclone has generated well developed upper level outflow that is pumping out mass in all directions.  Unless it is interrupted by an eyewall replacement cycle, the intensification is likely to continue.

Pam is being steering toward the south by a subtropical ridge located to its east.  The ridge strengthened slightly on Tuesday and pushed the tropical cyclone slightly to the west of the projected track.  The ridge is expected to continue to steer Pam toward the south during the next few days.  The projected track continues to predict that Pam will move east of Vanuatu and New Caledonia and west of Fiji.  However, a further deviation to the west could bring the circulation closer to Vanuatu.  Because of the intensify and large size of the circulation, impacts could be serious if Pam moves over any islands.

 

Tropical Cyclone Pam Intensifying Rapidly Northwest of Fiji

A circulation core developed rapidly in a large area of thunderstorms east of the Solomon Islands and the system was classified as Tropical Cyclone Pam on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pam was located at latitude 9.8° and longitude 170.4°E which put it about 790 miles northwest of Fiji.  Pam was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 90 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Pam intensified rapidly on Monday and reached hurricane intensity within 24 hours of being classified as a tropical cyclone.  It is over Sea Surface Temperatures warmer than 30°C and it has moved into an area where the upper level winds are relatively light.  It normally takes the circulation in a large tropical disturbance a long time to consolidate around an inner core.  However, Pam has well developed upper level outflow, which has pumped out mass and enabled the system to intensify rapidly.  Pam is expected to remain in a very favorable environment and continued rapid intensification is likely.  It could become a very powerful tropical cyclone during the next several days.

Pam is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge with is steering it in a south-southeasterly direction.  That generally steering pattern is expected to continue for the next several days.  The projected path of Pam carries it west of Fiji and east of Vanuatu and New Caledonia.  Given the large size and intensity of the tropical cyclone, any deviation from the projected path could increase the risk posed by Tropical Cyclone Pam.