Tropical Cyclone Pam Intensifying Rapidly Northwest of Fiji

A circulation core developed rapidly in a large area of thunderstorms east of the Solomon Islands and the system was classified as Tropical Cyclone Pam on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pam was located at latitude 9.8° and longitude 170.4°E which put it about 790 miles northwest of Fiji.  Pam was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 90 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Pam intensified rapidly on Monday and reached hurricane intensity within 24 hours of being classified as a tropical cyclone.  It is over Sea Surface Temperatures warmer than 30°C and it has moved into an area where the upper level winds are relatively light.  It normally takes the circulation in a large tropical disturbance a long time to consolidate around an inner core.  However, Pam has well developed upper level outflow, which has pumped out mass and enabled the system to intensify rapidly.  Pam is expected to remain in a very favorable environment and continued rapid intensification is likely.  It could become a very powerful tropical cyclone during the next several days.

Pam is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge with is steering it in a south-southeasterly direction.  That generally steering pattern is expected to continue for the next several days.  The projected path of Pam carries it west of Fiji and east of Vanuatu and New Caledonia.  Given the large size and intensity of the tropical cyclone, any deviation from the projected path could increase the risk posed by Tropical Cyclone Pam.