Tropical Cyclone Pam continued to intensify on Thursday and it has attained an intensity equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 5:00 p.m. the center of Tropical Cyclone Pam was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 169.6°E which put it about 100 miles east of Maewo, Vanuatu and about 560 miles northwest of Fiji.  Pam was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. and it was estimated that there could be wind gusts to 200 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Pam is in an almost ideal environment for a tropical cyclone.  The Sea Surface Temperatures are warm and the upper level winds are very light.  It has a well developed circulation with a tight inner core.  Upper level divergence is pumping out mass in all directions.  Some further intensification is possible during the shorter term.  Eventually, when Pam moves farther south in a couple of days, it will move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and into a region where the upper level winds are stronger.  At that time it should start a steady weakening trend.  In the interim eyewall replacement cycles could produce fluctuations in intensity, but Pam is likely to be a big strong tropical cyclone for several more days.

An upper level ridge to the east of Pam is steering it generally toward the south.  It has moved a little west of due south today and that has brought the western part of the circulation closer to Vanuatu.  Any further westward movement could bring strong winds very close to Maewo, Pentecote, Ambrym, Epi, Efate and numerous smaller islands in southeastern Vanuatu.  Pam is a large, strong tropical cyclone and it is capable of causing serious damage on any island it crosses.