Hurricane Patricia continued to intensify rapidly during the overnight hours and it is now the strongest hurricane on record for the Eastern North Pacific.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Patricia was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 105.5°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Patricia was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 200 m.p.h. (320 km) and there were wind gusts to 245 m.p.h. (400 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 880 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast between Sas Blas and Punta San Telmo, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Hurricane Patricia has broken a number of records.  The maximum sustained wind speed increased from 85 m.p.h. to 200 m.p.h. between 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday and 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday.  The rate of increase of 115 m.p.h. in 24 hours is the fastest rate of intensification observed in the Eastern Pacific. It exceeds the 100 m.p.h. in 24 hours that occurred in Hurricane Linda in 1997.  Interestingly, 1997 was also an El Nino year.  The minimum surface pressure of 880 mb is the lowest ever recorded in the National Hurricane Center’s Area of Responsibility which includes the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Oceans.  It is lower than the 882 recorded when Hurricane Wilma was over the Caribbean Sea in 2005.

Hurricane Patricia is an extremely dangerous hurricane.  It has a Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) of 50.0, a Hurricane Size Index (HSI) of 11.3 and a Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) of 61.3.  Those indices mean that Patricia will be capable of causing catastrophic regional damage when it reaches the west coast of Mexico north of Manzanillo later on Friday.  Hurricane Patricia will be capable of causing catastrophic wind damage, generating a potentially destructive storm surge near the coast and producing heavy rain and flooding as it moves inland.

Hurricane Patricia continued to intensify very rapidly on Thursday night and it reached Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Patricia was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 105.1°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Patricia was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 924 mb.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Punta San Telmo.  A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.

Hurricane Patricia has a Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) of 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 47.4.  Those indices mean that Hurricane Patricia is capable of causing catastrophic regional damage.  Hurricane Patricia is currently about the same size that Hurricane Dennis was before Dennis hit the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.  However, Patricia is stronger than Dennis was at that time.

Hurricane Patricia remains in an environment with warm Sea Surface Temperatures and little vertical wind shear.  Only an eyewall replacement cycle could cause weakening in the short term.  When Hurricane Patricia moves farther north, it will start to encounter upper level winds blowing from the southwest, which will increase the wind shear.  The wind shear could start to weaken Patricia later on Friday.

Hurricane Patricia is moving around the western end of ridge and the hurricane has turned toward the north.  When Patricia encounters the southwesterly winds in the upper levels, it will turn toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Patricia could make landfall on the west coast of Mexico between San Blas and Boca de Apiza on Friday night.  Even though Hurricane Patricia could weaken somewhat before it makes landfall, it will still be a very dangerous hurricane.  Hurricane Patricia poses a major threat to cause significant regional wind damage and a storm surge at the coast.  Heavy rain could produce serious flooding, especially as Patricia moves inland over steeper terrain.

Hurricane Patricia intensified rapidly on Thursday and it reached Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  The maximum sustained wind speed in Patricia increased from 60 m.p.h. to 130 m.p.h. in 24 hours, which qualified as very rapid intensification.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Patricia was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 104.6°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Patricia was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Patricia was 25.1, the Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index was 35.5.  Those indices mean that Patricia is almost as strong and just a little larger than Hurricane Charley was when it hit southwest Florida in 2004.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Punta San Telmo.  It has also issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.

Patricia is a small hurricane, but it has a very well organized circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds a small, 12 mile (19km), eye (sometimes called a pinhole eye because of the way it looks on satellite images).  Multiple spiral bands are rotating around the core fo the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core are generating strong upper level divergence in all directions.

Hurricane Patricia remains in a very favorable environment.  It is over water were the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge over the top of Patricia is keeping the vertical wind shear to a minimum.  Patricia could intensify further, although if concentric eyewalls develop, then eyewall replacement cycles could produce fluctuations in wind speeds.

Hurricane Patricia is moving around the western end of a ridge that extends from the Gulf of Mexico over Mexico.  When Patricia reaches the end of ridge on Friday, it will turn toward the north.  As the hurricane moves farther north it will encounter westerly winds in the southern end of an upper level trough.  Those winds will turn Hurricane Patricia toward the northeast.

On its anticipated track Hurricane Patricia could approach the west coast of Mexico late on Friday.  It will pose a serious threat to the coast at that time.  Patricia will bring strong winds, heavy rain and a storm surge to the coast.  Very heavy rain could fall as Hurricane Patricia moves inland and serious flooding will be possible, especially in the more mountainous areas of Mexico.  The remnants of Hurricane Patricia could eventually move over parts of Texas and add moisture and rain to that region.