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Typhoon Cimaron Brings Wind and Rain to Japan

Typhoon Cimaron brought wind and rain to Japan on Thursday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 35.9°N and longitude 135.1°E which put it about 70 miles west of Fukui, Japan.  Cimaron was moving toward the north at 26 m.p.h. (42 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The center of Typhoon Cimaron moved near the eastern end of Shikoku early on Wednesday.  Cimaron moved quickly northward and the center passed over Awaji Island.  Typhoon Cimaron made landfall on Honshu west of Kobe and Osaka near Akashi.  Cimaron continued to move quickly toward the north across Honshu and the center of circulation emerged over the Sea of Japan later on Thursday.  Kansai International Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  Komoda, Japan reported a sustained wind speed of 63 m.p.h. (102 km/h).

Typhoon Cimaron dropped locally heavy rain over parts of Shikoku and southwestern Honshu.  Kobe measured 4.75 inches (120.5 mm) of rain and there could have been higher amounts in mountainous regions where the wind was blowing up the slopes.  The potential for flash floods exists in areas of steep terrain.

Typhoon Cimaron is forecast to weaken over the Sea of Japan.  It will move over cooler water.  In addition, an upper level trough over eastern Asia will produce strong westerly winds that will cause significant vertical wind shear.  The trough is forecast to turn Typhoon Lane toward the east and it could make another landfall over northern Honshu or Hokkaido.  Cimaron will weaken to a tropical storm, but it could drop heavy rain over those areas.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Soulik was making landfall on the southwestern coast of South Korea near Mokp’o.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Soulik was located at latitude 35.2°N and longitude 126.8°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest of Kunsan, South Korea.  Soulik was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The upper level trough over eastern Asia was also causing strong vertical wind shear over Tropical Storm Soulik.  Soulik was weakening as it approached the coast, but it will still be capable of dropping locally heavy rain over portions of South Korea.  The heavy rain could create the potential for flash floods.

Typhoon Soulik Strikes Cheju Island

Typhoon Soulik struck Cheju Island on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 33.0°N and longitude 125.7°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west of Cheju Island.  Soulik was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Typhoon Soulik had a large eye and the eastern eyewall, which was the strongest part of the circulation, moved directly over Cheju Island on Wednesday.  The island would have experienced winds to typhoon force and heavy rain.  The heavy rain could produce flash floods.  Typhoon Soulik weakened as it approached Cheju.  The circulation appeared to draw some drier air around the western and southern side of the circulation.  The heaviest rain was falling in the northern and eastern quadrants of the typhoon.  Soulik was moving over cooler water and an upper level trough over eastern Asia was causing vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough will turn Typhoon Soulik toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Soulik could pass near the southwestern tip of South Korea in about 12 hours.  Soulik could make landfall near Kunsan in about 24 hours.  The eastern side of Typhoon Soulik, which is the stronger side, will pass over much of South Korea during the next 24 hours.  Soulik will produce gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain.  The rain could produce flash floods on the Korean peninsula.

Elsewhere over the tropical Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Cimaron moved closer to Japan.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 135.6°E which put it about 335 miles (540 km) south of Osaka, Japan.  Cimaron was moving toward the northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Cimaron is forecast to move quickly toward Japan during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Cimaron will approach the coasts of Shikoku and Honshu between Tokushima and Tanabe in about 12 hours.  Cimaron is forecast to be a typhoon when it makes landfall in Japan.  It will bring strong winds and Cimaron will drop locally heavy rain.  Flash floods could occur, especially in regions of steeper terrain.

Typhoon Soulik Threatens South Korea, Cimaron Heads Toward Japan

Typhoon Soulik threatened South Korea on Tuesday night and Typhoon Cimaron headed toward Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 30.8°N and longitude 127.3°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south-southeast of Cheju, South Korea.  Soulik was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

There was a large eye with a diameter of 65 miles (105 km) at the center of Typhoon Soulik.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surround the eye, but there were some breaks in the ring of storms.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Soulik.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 250 miles (400 km) from the center.

Typhoon Soulik will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Soulik more toward the north during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Soulik will be near Cheju Island in 18 to 24 hours.  Soulik could be near Seoul, South Korea in less than 48 hours.   Typhoon Soulik will move over cooler water when it moves northward.  Vertical wind shear will also increase as an upper level trough approaches the typhoon from the west.  Soulik is likely to be a typhoon when it approaches Cheju Island.  It will drop heavy rain over South Korea and there will be a risk for flash floods.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 24.8°N and longitude 139.3°E which put it about 95 miles (150 km) west-southwest of Iwo To.  Cimaron was moving toward the northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik had less of an effect on the outflow from Typhoon Cimaron and Cimaron strengthened on Tuesday.  Typhoon Cimaron strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane.  Cimaron was moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.   On its anticipated track Typhoon Cimaron could be near the coast of Shikoku and Honshu in about 36 hours.

Large Typhoon Soulik Nears Ryukyu Islands, Cimaron Brushes Northern Marianas

Large Typhoon Soulik neared the Ryukyu Islands on Monday night, while Typhoon Cimaron brushed the Northern Mariana Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 131.7°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south-southeast of Yaku Shima, Japan.  Soulik was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A large circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) developed at the center of Typhoon Soulik.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Soulik.  The strongest rainbands were occurring in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds around the core Soulik were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Soulik has a large circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Soulik was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.1.

The large symmetrical structure of Typhoon Soulik will allow it to maintain its intensity for a longer period than a smaller tropical cyclone.  Soulik will move through an environment during the next 24 to 36 hours that will support a strong typhoon.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an environment where the vertical wind shear will not be too strong.

Typhoon Soulik will move around the western end of ridge centered north of Japan.  The ridge will steer Soulik toward the northwest for another 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Soulik will move over the northern Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday.  Soulik could approach South Korea within 36 hours.

Typhoon Cimaron brushed the northernmost Mariana Islands on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 144.5°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north-northwest of Agrihan.  Cimaron was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Typhoon Cimaron is forecast to be near Iwo To in about 24 hours.  Cimaron could approach Honshu within 48 hours.  Upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik is inhibiting the divergence on the western side of Cimaron.  The effects of Soulik will reduce the potential intensification of Typhoon Cimaron, but Cimaron could strengthen slowly during the next day or two.

Typhoon Soulik Moves Toward Ryukyu Islands, Cimaron Approaches Northern Marianas

Typhoon Soulik moved toward the northern Ryukyu Islands on Sunday and Typhoon Cimaron approached the Northern Mariana Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 135.8°E which put it about 450 miles (730 km) east-southeast of Yaku Shima.  Soulik was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

The structure of Typhoon Soulik changed on Sunday.  A large circular eye with a diameter or 45 miles (75 km) developed at the center of circulation.  A circular ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The ring was thinner on the western side of the eye and there may have been breaks in the ring.  Several bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Soulik.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 195 miles (315 km) from the center.

Typhoon Soulik will move through an environment that should allow it to maintain its intensity for another day or two.  Soulik will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge north of Japan will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the typhoon, but the winds will not cause significant vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Soulik could weaken a little, but it is likely to maintain most of its strength for another 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Soulik will move around the western end of the ridge north of Japan.  The ridge will steer Soulik toward the northwest for another 36 to 48 hours.  When Soulik reaches the western end of the ridge, it will turn toward the north.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Soulik could reach the northern Ryukyu Islands in about 36 hours.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 148.5°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) east-northeast of Saipan.  Cimaron was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.  A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Agrihan, Pagan, Almagan.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Saipan and Tinian.

Typhoon Cimaron will move through an environment that could allow it to intensify during the next several days.  Cimaron will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik could inhibit the divergence generated by Cimaron on the northern side of the circulation.  Typhoon Cimaron is likely to intensify during the next day or two,

Typhoon Cimaron will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Cimaron toward the northwest during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Cimaron will move over the Northern Marianas during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Cimaron could reach Iwo To within 48 hours and it could be south of Honshu in about three days.

Typhoon Soulik Strengthens Near Iwo To

Typhoon Soulik strengthened near Iwo To on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 140.0°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west-southwest of Iwo To.  Soulik was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Typhoon Soulik strengthened quickly on Friday.  An eye appeared at the center of circulation on satellite imagery.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The strongest rainbands were occurring in the eastern half of Typhoon Soulik.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Typhoon Soulik will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Soulik will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Soulik will continue to intensify and it will become the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Typhoon Soulik will be in an area where the winds at steering level are weak during next 12 to 24 hours.  Soulik is likely to move slowly northward during that time.  A subtropical ridge northeast of Typhoon Soulik is forecast to strengthen in a day or so.  When that happens, the ridge will steer Soulik in a general northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Soulik will slowly away from Iwo To on Saturday.  Soulik will continue to produce gusty winds and to drop heavy rain over Iwo To until it moves away.  Typhoon Soulik will move in the general direction of Kyushu and the Ryukyu Islands during the next several days.

Tropical Storm Jongdari Heads Toward China

Tropical Storm Jongdari headed toward China late on Tuesday.  After dropping heavy rain on parts of Honshu and Kyushu, former Typhoon Jongdari weakened to a tropical storm.  Jongdari then was caught by the circulation of an upper level low south of Japan and the tropical storm made a slow counterclockwise loop south of Kyushu.  Tropical Storm Jongdari completed the loop and moved west toward China on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Jongdari was located at latitude 30.0°N and longitude 126.7°E which put it about 360 miles (575 km) east-southeast of Shanghai, China.  Jongdari was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Jongdari moved around the circulation of an upper level low south of Japan on Sunday and Monday.  Strong upper winds rotating around the upper level low caused vertical wind shear which disrupted the upper part of Jongdari’s circulation.  However, the integrity of the lower level circulation remained intact.  There is a well defined low level circulation with bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the center of circulation.  Stronger upper level winds have periodically sheared the tops off of the taller thunderstorms.  New thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation but it is unclear if those storms will persist.

Tropical Storm Jongdari will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Jongdari will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  However the upper level low south of Japan and an upper level ridge over East Asia will combine to produce strong easterly winds which will blow across the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Jongdari could intensify a little during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Jongdari will move south of a high pressure system near East Asia which will steer Jongdari in a general westerly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Jongdari could approach the coast of China southeast of Shanghai in about 24 hours.  The center of Jongdari could be near Shanghai in about 36 hours.  Tropical Storm Jongdari will bring some gusty winds, but the greater risk will be locally heavy rainfall.  Heavy rain falling on very moist ground could cause flash floods over parts of eastern China.

Typhoon Jongdari Makes Landfall on Honshu

Typhoon Jongdari made landfall on Honshu near Ise in the Mie Prefecture on Saturday.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) at the time of landfall.  Jongdari weakened to a tropical storm after the center moved over Honshu.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Jongdari was located at latitude 34.7°N and longitude 135.0°E which put it about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of Kobe, Japan.  Jongdari was moving toward the west-northwest at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

The center of Typhoon Jongdari made landfall in the Mie Prefecture on Honshu near Ise and Toba.  Jongdari then moved west-northwest near Matsusaka and Tsu.  It passed near Nara and Osaka before moving to its current position southwest of Kobe.  Typhoon Jongdari brought gusty winds and it dropped locally heavy rain over parts of the Mie, Nara, Shiga, Kyoto, Osaka and Hyogo Prefectures.  The ground in some of those places is very moist from recent rains and flash flooding could occur if more heavy rain falls.  The relatively rapid movement of Tropical Storm Jongdari will help to reduce the amount of rain that falls over specific locations.

Tropical Storm Jongdari will continue to weaken as it moves over western Honshu and northern Kyushu.  Jongdari is moving around the northern side of an upper level low south of Japan.  The upper level low will steer Tropical Storm Jongdari quickly to the west during the next 12 hours.  Jongdari will move southwest on Sunday when it moves around the northwestern part of the upper low.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Jongdari will move near Okayama, Hiroshima, Yamaguchi, Kitakyushu and Fukuoka.  The tropical storm will continue to drop locally heavy rain while it weakens over western Japan.

Typhoon Jongdari Nears Iwo To

Typhoon Jongdari neared Iwo To on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Jongdari was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 140.5°E which put it about 105 miles (170 km) southwest of Iwo To.  Jongdari was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Jongdari strengthened as it neared Iwo To on Thursday.  An eye developed at the center of circulation and the Japan Meteorological Agency classified Jongdari as a typhoon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Jongdari.  Thunderstorms in the core of Jongdari were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 130 miles (210 km) from the center.

Typhoon Jongdari will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Jongdari will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level low southeast of Honshu will cause easterly winds which will blow over the northern part of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will be less over the core of the typhoon.  Typhoon Jongdari will strengthen during the next 24 to 48 hours and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Jongdari is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific and the ridge is steering Jongdari toward the northeast.  A general motion toward the northeast is forecast for the next 12 to 24 hours.  The upper low southeast of Honshu will move slowly toward the west.  When Jongdari moves farther north, it will begin to be steered more by the upper level low.  Typhoon Jongdari is forecast to turn more toward the north on Friday.  Jongdari will start to move toward the northwest in about 36 hours, when it moves northeast of the upper level low.

On its anticipated track Typhoon Jongdari will move over Iwo To in a few hours.  It will bring gusty winds and heavy rain.  Typhoon Jongdari could approach Honshu in about 48 hours and it could cause flooding in addition to strong winds and heavy rain.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific, Tropical Storm Wokung was weakening east of northern Japan.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Wokung was located at latitude 42.2°N and longitude 152.5°E which put it about 600 miles (960 km) east of Misawa, Japan.  Wokung was moving toward the north-northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Storm Son-tinh Makes Landfall in Vietnam, Ampil Forms South of Okinawa

Tropical Storm Son-tinh made landfall in Vietnam on Wednesday while Tropical Storm Ampil formed south of Okinawa.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Son-tinh was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 105.5°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north-northwest of Vinh, Vietnam.  Son-tinh was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Son-tinh strengthened on Wednesday after it moved away from Hainan Island.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western and southern side of the center of circulation and the inner end of the band began to evolve into a partial eyewall.  Thunderstorms in the core of Son-tinh generated upper level divergence which pumped away mass.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease.  A stronger pressure gradient force produced higher wind speeds.

Tropical Storm Son-tinh moved south of a ridge in the upper and middle troposphere.  The ridge steered Son-tinh steadily toward the west and the tropical storm made landfall just north of Vinh, Vietnam late on Wednesday.  Tropical Storm Son-tinh brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of northern Vietnam around Vinh.  Son-tinh was also dropping locally heavy rain over portions of northern Vietnam and flash flooding could occur in some locations.

Tropical Storm Son-tinh will continue to move westward over northern Vietnam and northern Laos.  Son-tinh will weaken as the circulation moves inland.  It will continue to drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in parts of northern Vietnam and northern Laos during the next several days.

The organization of former Tropical Depression 12W improved on Wednesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Ampil.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Ampil was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 129.6°E which put it about 480 miles (775 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Ampil was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Ampil was not particularly well organized.  It exhibited characteristics of a hybrid low pressure system.  There was an upper low northwest of the low level circulation.  The upper low was causing strong southwesterly winds which were blowing across the top of the lower level circulation.  Those winds were causing significant vertical wind shear and they were tilting the circulation strongly toward the northeast.  The strongest bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring south and west of the low level circulation.  Bands north and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The upper low will gradually move toward the west.  As the low moves westward, the vertical wind shear over Tropical Storm Ampil will start to decrease.  Ampil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, when the vertical wind shear decreases, then Tropical Storm Ampil will likely intensify.  Ampil could eventually strengthen into a typhoon in two or three days.

The upper low will initially will steer Tropical Storm Ampil toward the northeast.  When the upper low moves farther to the west on Thursday, then Ampil will move toward the north.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Ampil could be near Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands in two or three days.