Tropical Storm Carlos formed southwest of Baja California on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 124.5°W which put it about 1225 miles (1970 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Carlos was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system southwest of Baja California exhibited more organization on satellite imagery on Saturday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Carlos. More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Carlos. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Carlos. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the northern side of Carlos. The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in the southern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Carlos will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Carlos will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Carlos. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and they already contributed to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Carlos will likely strengthen on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Carlos will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Carlos toward the west during the next 24 hours. The steering currents could weaken during the early part of next week and Tropical Storm Carlos could meander slowly well to the southwest of Baja California.