Tropical Cyclone Marian Intensifies To Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Sunday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 91.1°E which put it about 520 miles (835 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Marian was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the past 24 hours. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) formed at the center of Marian. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of the circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Marian.

The area of the strongest winds expanded as Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified rapidly. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Marian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Marian was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.3.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Marian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move under the western portion of an upper level ridge. The upper level winds will be weak during the next 12 hours and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Marian could intensify during the next 12 hours. Marian will move closer to upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes early next week. The vertical wind shear will increase at that time and Tropical Cyclone Marian will weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Marian toward the southwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marian will move farther away from Cocos Island. After Marian moves around the western end of the high pressure system, the tropical cyclone will start to move toward the southeast..

Tropical Cyclone Marian Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Saturday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian was located at latitude 16.4°S and longitude 93.0°E which put it about 370 miles (595 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Marian was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Marian continued to exhibit more organization on Saturday. An eye was visible at the center of Marian at times on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Marian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Marian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Marian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the western portion of an upper level ridge. The upper level winds will be weak during the next 24 hours and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Marian is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system. The high will steer Marian toward the southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marian will move farther away from Cocos Island. Marian could recurve back toward Australia next week after it moves around the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Cyclone Marian Strengthens South of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Marian strengthened south of Cocos Island on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 96.4°E which put it about 190 miles (310 km) south of Cocos Island. Marian was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The circulation around an area of low pressure over the South Indian Ocean south of Cocos Island exhibited much more organization on Friday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Marian. Marian organized quickly during the past few hours. An eye was beginning to appear at the center of Marian on infrared satellite images. The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the developing eyewall. Thunderstorms near the center of Marian generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Marian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) in the northern half of Marian.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Marian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the northern portion of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. However, the winds speeds will be similar at different levels in the atmosphere and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Marian will intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move around the northwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system. The high will steer Marian toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marian will move farther away from Cocos Island.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Moves away from Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Guambe moved away from Mozambique on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 29.1°S and longitude 38.1°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) southeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe appeared to develop concentric eyewalls on Saturday which caused the circulation to weaken. The maximum sustained wind speed decreased when the original, small inner eyewall dissipated. There were fewer thunderstorms around the center of Guambe on Saturday night. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Guambe contained more showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be capable of sustaining a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 26°C, but it will gradually move over colder water. An upper level trough south of Africa will approach Tropical Cyclone Guambe from the west. The trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Guambe. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear when they reach Tropical Cyclone Guambe. The combination of more vertical wind shear and colder water will cause the structure of Guambe to being a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Guambe toward the southeast during the next two days. On its anticipated track Guambe will move farther away from Mozambique. Tropical Cyclone Guambe is forecast to pass well to the south of Madagascar.

Dujuan Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Dujuan weakened to a tropical depression on Saturday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Dujuan was located at latitude 8.4°N and longitude 129.6°E which put it about 210 miles (335 km) east of Hinatuan, Philippines. Dujuan was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Strong easterly winds in the upper troposphere blew the top off of former Tropical Storm Dujuan on Friday night. The circulation in the lower levels gradually weakened and Dujuan was classified as a tropical depression on Saturday. The low level circulation consisted almost entirely of showers and lower clouds during much of Saturday. A few thunderstorms developed northeast of the center of Tropical Depression Dujuan on Saturday night, but it was not clear that the thunderstorms would persist.

Tropical Depression Dujuan will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support intensification. However, Tropical Depression Dujuan will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will continue to produce strong easterly winds which will blow toward the top of Dujuan. In addition, a surface high pressure system over eastern Asia will produce strong northeasterly winds in the lower levels. Those winds will transport drier air over the Philippines. The combination of vertical wind shear and drier air will likely prevent intensification of Tropical Depression Dujuan.

Tropical Depression Dujuan will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Dujuan toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Dujuan could approach northern Mindano, southern Samar and Cebu in 18 hours. Dujuan will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the central Philippines.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Guambe strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 25.4°S and longitude 36.4°E which put it about 260 miles (415 km) east of Maputo, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe continued to intensify over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel on Friday. A small circular eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) was present at the center of Guambe. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Tropical Cyclone Guambe generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Guambe.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Guambe was relatively small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Guambe. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) on the eastern side of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the western side of the circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Guambe was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.0.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Guambe could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing small eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Guambe to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Guambe slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move parallel to the coast of Mozambique. The center of Guambe is forecast to remain over the Mozambique Channel, but rainbands on the western side of the tropical cyclone could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the coast of southern Mozambique.

Tropical Storm Dujuan Moves Toward Mindanao

Tropical Storm Dujuan moved toward Mindanao on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan was located at latitude 6.2°N and longitude 130.1°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) east of Davao, Philippines. Dujuan was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Dujuan was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northwestern quadrant of Dujuan. Bands in the rest of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms northwest of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northwest of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Dujuan.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support intensification. However, Tropical Storm Dujuan will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce strong easterly winds which will blow toward the top of Dujuan. Those winds are causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and they will create strong vertical wind shear. In addition, a surface high pressure system over eastern Asia will produce strong northeasterly winds in the lower levels. Those winds will transport drier air over the Philippines. The combination of vertical wind shear and drier air will likely prevent further intensification of Tropical Storm Dujuan. Dujuan is likely to weaken gradually during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Dujuan toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dujuan could approach northeastern Mindano in 36 hours. Dujuan could be a tropical storm when it reaches Mindanao. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mindano and other parts of the southern Philippines.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Intensifies East of Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Guambe intensified east of Mozambique on Thursday. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 24.2°S and longitude 37.3°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east of Inhambane, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe intensified to nearly the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel on Thursday night. A small circular eye at the center of Guambe was evident on microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Guambe. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Guambe will strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 6 hours. Guambe could intensify rapidly for a period of time and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Guambe slowly toward the south during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move parallel to the coast of Mozambique. Rainbands on the western side of Guambe could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the coast of southern Mozambique.

Tropical Storm Dujuan Develops East of Mindanao

Tropical Storm Dujuan developed east of Mindanao on Thursday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dujuan was located at latitude 7.3°N and longitude 131.6°E which put it about 430 miles (695 km) east of Davao, Philippines. Dujuan was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around an area of low pressure east of the Philippines strengthened on Thursday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Dujuan. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Dujuan was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Dujuan. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms west of the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Dujuan.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Dujuan. Those winds will create moderate vertical wind shear and they are causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent Dujuan from strengthening. Tropical Storm Dujuan is likely to intensify gradually during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Dujuan toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dujuan could approach northeastern Mindano in 48 hours. Dujuan could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mindano and other parts of the southern Philippines.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Forms over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Guambe formed over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 37.5°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east-northeast of Vilanculos, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the south at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system moved eastward from southern Africa over the Mozambique Channel and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Guambe. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Guambe exhibited more organization after it moved over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Guambe. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be very favorable for inensification during the next 48 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Guambe will strengthen during the next 48 hours and it could intensify rapidly after an inner core develops. Guambe is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Guambe slowly toward the south during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move parallel, but close to the coast of Mozambique. Guambe will produce gusty winds and it will drop heavy rain near the coast of Mozambique.