Tropical Cyclone Burevi Stalls over Gulf of Mannar

Tropical Cyclone Burevi stalled over the Gulf of Mannar on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi was located at latitude 9.0°N and longitude 79.4°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east of Toothukudi, India. Burevi was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi stalled over the Gulf of Mannar between Sri Lanka and the southern tip of India on Friday. Although the center of Burevi was over water, the tropical cyclone weakened since some of the circulation passed over Sri Lanka or southern India. The parts of the circulation that were over land experienced increased friction and were unable to extract as much energy from the surface. The wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Burevi decreased gradually as a result of more friction and less available energy.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi dropped locally heavy rain over parts of southern Tamil Nadu and Kerala in India. Persistent rain fell in some locations because Burevi stalled. If the rain continues to fall over the same locations, then flash floods are likely to occur.

A high pressure system over India could start to push Tropical Cyclone Burevi toward the west during the weekend. Burevi will weaken further if the center moves across southern India. Tropical Cyclone Burevi could strengthen slowly next week, if the circulation is still relatively intact when it reaches the Arabian Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi Rains on Sri Lanka and Southern India

Tropical Cyclone Burevi dropped rain on northern Sri Lanka and southern India on Wednesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi was located at latitude 9.1°N and longitude 80.4°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south-southeast of Jaffna, Sri Lanka. Burevi was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi made landfall on the coast of Sri Lanka north of Trincomalee on Wednesday. The center moved westward across northern Sri Lanka after it made landfall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the northern and western parts of Burevi dropped rain over northern Sri Lanka, southern Tamil Nadu and southern Kerala. Prolonged rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi could weaken during the next few hours while the center is over northern Sri Lanka. The center of Burevi will move over the Gulf of Mannar in a few hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi could make another landfall on the coast of southern India near Thoothukudi in about 18 hours. Burevi will move across the southernmost parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Tropical Cyclone Burevi could move over the Arabian Sea in about 36 hours. Burevi could slowly strengthen when it moves over the Arabian Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi Strengthens East of Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone Burevi strengthened over the Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka on Tuesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi was located at latitude 8.0°N and longitude 84.4°E which put it about 220 miles (350 km) east of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. Burevi was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (110 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A former tropical depression over the Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka strengthened into Tropical Cyclone Burevi on Tuesday. More thunderstorms formed close to the center of circulation. More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Burevi. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles from the center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi will move through a region favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Burevi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the eastern end of an upper level ridge centered over India. The upper winds will be weaker during the next day or so and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Burevi will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi will move south of a high pressure system over India and the Bay of Bengal. The high will steer Burevi toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi will approach northern Sri Lanka in about 24 hours. Burevi will bring gusty winds to the northeast coast of Sri Lanka and the coastal waters around southern India. Tropical Cyclone Burevi will drop heavy rain over parts of Sri Lanka and southern India. Flash floods could occur in portions of Sri Lanka, southern Tamil Nadu and southern Kerala.

Tropical Depression Forms East of Sri Lanka

A Tropical Depression (also designated as Invest 98B) formed over the southern Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of a tropical depression was located at latitude 6.7°N and longitude 86.3°E which put it about 295 miles (475 km) east of Pottuvil, Sri Lanka. It was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low level center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms over the southern Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka on Monday. The circulation around the tropical depression was still organizing on Monday night. More thunderstorms were developing near the low level center. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming outside the center of circulation. Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north and west of the tropical depression.

The tropical depression will move through a region somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge centered over Southeast Asia. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but it probably will not be strong enough to prevent the tropical depression from intensifying.

The tropical depression will move south of a high pressure system over India and the Bay of Bengal. The high will steer the depression toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track the tropical depression will approach Sri Lanka in about 36 hours. It will drop heavy rain over parts of Sri Lanka and flash floods could occur.

Tropical Cyclone Nivar Moves along Andhra Pradesh Coast

Tropical Cyclone Nivar moved northward along the coast of Andhra Pradesh on Thursday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nivar was located at latitude 14.0°N and longitude 80.7°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south-southeast of Nellore, India. Nivar was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

After making landfall on the southeast coast of India near Puducherry on Wednesday, vertical wind shear blew the upper portion of Tropical Cyclone Nivar west of the surface circulation. An upper level ridge over India produced easterly winds which blew toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Nivar. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The shear was strong enough to blow the upper part of Nivar west of the surface circulation. The upper part of the circulation moved westward across southern India and weakened. The surface circulation moved northward along the southeast coast of India and back over the Bay of Bengal north of Chennai.

Tropical Cyclone Nivar will move through an environment that will be only slightly favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Nivar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C, while it is over the Bay of Bengal. However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The shear is likely to prevent Tropical Cyclone Nivar from strengthening.

Tropical Cyclone Nivar will continue to move north along the southeast coast of India for the next few hours. After that time a high pressure system over northern India will turn Nivar toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Nivar is forecast to move inland over southern Andhra Pradesh and to move toward Karnataka. Nivar will weaken after the low level circulation moves inland, but it will drop locally heavy rain over southern Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Flash floods could occur in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Nivar Makes Landfall in Tamil Nadu

Tropical Cyclone Nivar made landfall on the coast of Tamil Nadu on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nivar was located at latitude 12.2°N and longitude 79.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) north of Puducherry, India. Nivar was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nivar made landfall on the southeast coast of India north of Puducherry on Wednesday. Nivar strengthened into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Bay of Bengal before it made landfall. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km/h) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Nivar. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Nivar will produce gusty winds along the coast of Tamil Nadu between Cuddalore and Chennai. Winds blowing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) between Puducherry and Chennai. Nivar will drop heavy rain over parts of northern Tamil Nadu and flash floods could occur in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Nivar will move south of a high pressure system over India and the Bay of Bengal. The high will steer Nivar toward the west-northwest. The wind speed will steadily decrease when Tropical Cyclone Nivar moves inland. Nivar will drop locally heavy rain over parts of southern Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka when it moves farther inland over southern India.

Tropical Cyclone Nivar Strengthens near Southeast India

Tropical Cyclone Nivar (04B) strengthened over the Bay of Bengal near Southeast India on Tuesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nivar was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 82.6°E which put it about 235 miles (380 km) southeast of Chennai India. Nivar was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nivar strengthened to almost the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Bay of Bengal near Tamil Nadu on Tuesday. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Nivar. Other strong thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and west of the center of circulation. Bands south and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north and west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Nivar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nivar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will enhance the upper level divergence and contribute to the removal of mass, which will cause the surface pressure to decrease. Tropical Cyclone Nivar will intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Nivar will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Bay of Bengal. The high will steer Nivar toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Nivar will make landfall on the coast of India between Puducherry and Chennai in about 24 hours. Nivar will bring strong winds to southern India. Wind blowing water toward the coast will cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (2 meters). Tropical Cyclone Nivar will drop heavy rain over parts of Tamil Nadu and flash floods could occur.

Tropical Cyclone 04B Forms over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone 04B formed over the Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gati (03A) was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 83.0°E which put it about 210 miles (340 km) east-southeast of Puducherry India and about 200 miles (320 km) east of Jaffna, Sri Lanka. It was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system east of Sri Lanka strengthened on Monday. More thunderstorms developed near the center of the low and the wind speeds increased. The distribution of thunderstorms around the low was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move through an environment that is mostly favorable for intensification during the next during the next 36 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. The tropical cyclone will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they are probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to keep the tropical cyclone from strengthening. Tropical Cyclone 04B could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon with 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the Bay of Bengal. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B will pass north of Sri Lanka in about 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will approach the coast of India near Puducherry in 36 hours. It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the southeast coast of India.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will drop locally heavy rain over northern Sri Lanka. It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern India later this week. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Gati weakened as it moved across northeastern Somalia toward the Gulf of Aden. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gati (03A) was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 47.5°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northwest of Maydh, Somalia. Gati was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gati Intensifies Explosively near Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Gati intensified explosively near the northeast coast of Somalia during Saturday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gati (03A) was located at latitude 10.3°N and longitude 52.0°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east of Hafun, Somalia. It was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gati strengthened extremely rapidly on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) developed at the center of Gati. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of Gati generated very strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large amounts of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease very rapidly, which contributed to the explosive intensification.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gati was very small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Gati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gati was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.1. The structure of Gati was similar to that of midget typhoons sometimes observed over the Western North Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Cyclone Gati could strengthen further during the next few hours before it makes landfall on the northeast coast of Somalia. Gati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gati will weaken quickly after it makes landfall in Somalia.

Tropical Cyclone Gati will move south of a high pressure system over th Arabian Peninsula. The high will steer Gati toward the west during the next 36 to 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gati wil make landfall near Hafun, Somalia in about six hours. Gati will be capable of causing major damage around Hafun. It will drop heavy rain over parts of northeastern Somalia and flash floods could occur.

Tropical Cyclone 03A Forms East of Somalia

Tropical Cyclone 03A formed over the Arabian Sea east of Somalia on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03A was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 55.0°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) east of Hafun, Somalia. It was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system east of Somalia on Saturday and it strengthened into Tropical Cyclone 03A. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 03A will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C. The tropical cyclone will move under the southern portion of an upper level ridge over southern Asia. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 03A is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours in spite of the wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone 03A will move south of a high pressure system over the Arabian Peninsula. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 03A will pass south of Socotra Island during the next 12 hours. It will approach the coast of Somalia near Hafun in about 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northeastern Somalia in about a day or so.