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Arlene Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Arlene weakened to a tropical depression northwest of Cuba on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Arlene was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 85.1°W which put it about 145 miles (230 km) west-southwest of Dry Tortugas. Arlene was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Arlene weakened to a tropical depression over the Gulf of Mexico northwest of Cuba on Saturday morning. An upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico produced westerly winds that blew across the top of Arlene’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. In addition, drier air was pulled into the circulation around former Tropical Storm Arlene. The combination of strong vertical wind shear and drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in Arlene’s circulation to weaken. Most of the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Arlene consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. There were still a few thunderstorms in bands on the eastern side of Arlene.

Tropical Depression Arlene will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Arlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C.’ However, the southern part of the upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Arlene’s circulation. Those winds will keep causing the strong vertical wind shear. The drier air in the circulation around Arlene will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms. The strong vertical wind shear and the drier air are likely to cause Tropical Depression Arlene to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Arlene will be south of a large surface high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The high pressure system will move south on Saturday and it will push Arlene toward the east-southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Arlene will move north of Cuba by Saturday evening.

Tropical Depression Two Strengthens to Tropical Storm Arlene

Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened to Tropical Storm Arlene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was located at latitude 26.7°N and longitude 86.2°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) west of Ft. Meyers, Florida. Arlene was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found sustained wind speeds to tropical storm force in the northeastern part of former Tropical Depression Two on Thursday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Arlene. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Arlene was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northeastern quadrant of Arlene’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Arlene generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Arlene. The winds in the other parts of Arlene were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Arlene will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Arlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, Tropical Storm Arlene will move under the southern part of an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Arlene’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Drier air to the north and west of Tropical Storm Arlene will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the western part of Arlene. The vertical wind shear and the drier air are likely to cause Tropical Storm Arlene to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Arlene will be south of a large surface high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The high pressure system will move south on Friday and it will push Tropical Storm Arlene toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Arlene will stay west of Florida. Arlene could move near the western end of Cuba by Saturday evening.

Tropical Depression Two Forms over Northeast Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression Two formed over the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Two was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 86.6°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) west of St. Petersburg, Florida. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Surface observations from buoys in the Gulf of Mexico and data acquired by a U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane indicated that a low pressure system over the northeast Gulf of Mexico had formed into a tropical depression on Thursday afternoon. Tropical Depression Two had a broad low level center of circulation. The distribution of thunderstorms in the tropical depression was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern part of Tropical Depression Two. Bands in the western and southern parts of the tropical depression consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The surface center of Tropical Depression Two was slightly east of the axis of an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and the wind shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. In addition, drier air was north and west of Tropical Depression Two. The drier air was inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in the western part of the depression’s circulation.

Tropical Depression Two will be in an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The drier air will also continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the western part of the tropical depression. If the vertical wind shear does not get any stronger, then the tropical depression could strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. On the other hand, if the wind shear increases, then the tropical depression could start to weaken.

Tropical Depression Two will be south of a large surface high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The steering currents will be weak during the next 12 hours and the tropical depression may not move much. The high pressure system will move south on Friday and it will start to push Tropical Depression Two toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Two will stay southwest of Florida. It could move near the western end of Cuba by Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Colin Forms on South Carolina Coast

Tropical Storm Colin formed on the coast of South Carolina on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 79.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west-southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Colin was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina.

A small low pressure system dropped heavy rain over the area around Charleston, South Carolina on Friday. An area of winds to tropical storm force was detected off the coast of South Carolina on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Colin. The strongest winds were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Colin, which was over the Atlantic Ocean. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the eastern side of Colin’s circulation. The winds over land were weaker. The heaviest rain was also falling in the bands over the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Colin will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Although the Sea Surface Temperatures off the coast of North Carolina are near 27˚C, the center of Colin’s circulation is likely to move along the coast. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Proximity to land and vertical wind shear are likely to prevent Tropical Storm Colin from strengthening during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Colin toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Colin will move along the coast of North Carolina. Colin could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Bonnie was moving along the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 85.8°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southeast of Managua, Nicaragua. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb. Tropical Storm Bonnie will move over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean in a few hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the Caribbean coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the Pacific coast from Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica to the border between Nicaragua and Honduras.

Tropical Storm Bonnie Hits Nicaragua and Costa Rica

Tropical Storm Bonnie hit southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) south of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the Caribbean coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the Pacific coast from Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica to the border between Nicaragua and Honduras.

The center of Tropical Storm Bonnie made landfall on the Caribbean coast near the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica on Friday night. Bonnie was beginning to strengthen rapidly just prior to landfall. A reconnaissance plane reported an eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) had developed at the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) on the northern side of Bonnie’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 20 miles (30 km) on the southern side of Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will move south of the western part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bonnie will move along the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Bonnie will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Heavy rain could cause flash floods and mudslides in some locations. Bonnie will move over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will weaken while it moves over land. Mountains are likely to disrupt the low level circulation and to cause the developing eye and eyewall to dissipate. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C when it moves over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. Bonnie is forecast to strengthen back to a tropical storm when it moves over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean and it could intensify to a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical Storm Bonnie Forms over Southwest Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Bonnie formed over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 81.9°W which put it about 195 miles (315 km) east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for San Andres Island, Colombia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the Caribbean coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the Pacific coast from Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica to the border between Nicaragua and Honduras.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found westerly winds in the southwestern part of former Potential Tropical Cyclone Two on Friday morning. Based on data from the reconnaissance plane, the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Bonnie. More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie. Storms near the center of Bonnie generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern side of Bonnie’s circulation. Winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Bonnie were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will be under an upper level ridge over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Bonnie will strengthen during the next 12 hours. Bonnie will weaken when it moves over Nicaragua and Costa Rica, but it could strengthen again over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will move south of the western part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bonnie will hit southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica on Friday night. Bonnie will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Heavy rain could cause flash floods and mudslides in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Moves Toward Nicaragua

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two moved over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea toward Nicaragua on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 77.7°W which put it about 410 miles (665 km) east of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Laguna de Perlas, Nicaragua to the border with Costa Rica. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for San Andres Island, Colombia. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Pacific Coast from Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two exhibited more organization on Thursday night. More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. A reconnaissance aircraft found that the surface pressure had decreased slightly. However, there were still parts of the circulation that consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring in the northern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) on the northern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move under an upper level ridge over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two could develop into a tropical storm on Friday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move south of the western part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Two toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will begin to affect southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica on Friday evening. It could be a tropical storm when it approaches the coast. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Wave Brings Gusty Winds and Rain to Southern Windward Islands

A tropical wave, currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Windward Islands on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 62.0°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) west-northwest of Trinidad. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was moving toward the west-northwest at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the coast of Venezuela from Peninsula de Paraguana to the border with Colombia. A Tropical Storm Warning was also issued for the coast of Colombia from Santa Marta to the border with Venezuela. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao and Grenada. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Perdanales to Cumana, Venezuela.

A tropical wave speeding into the southeastern Caribbean Sea brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Windward Islands on Tuesday night. Aircraft reconnaissance and surface observations indicated that the wave did not have a well defined center of circulation at the surface. So, the tropical was was still designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

Satellite images suggested that the circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was exhibiting more organization. Thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in bands in the northern part of the tropical wave. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The winds in the southern half of the system were blowing at less than tropical storm force. Storms near the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two began to generate upper level divergence.

The tropical wave will move south of the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave toward the west. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move near the northern coast of South America during the next 36 hours. It could reach Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao in less than 24 hours.

The tropical wave will move through an environment that is mostly favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the winds in the troposphere will blow from the east at most levels and there will be little vertical wind shear. The southern part of the wave will move over northern parts of Venezuela and Colombia. Southerly winds flowing into the tropical wave could bring drier air from South America into the southern part of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. If the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two remains over the Caribbean Sea, then the circulation around the tropical wave could gradually become more organized during the next 24 hours. If a distinct center of circulation forms at the surface, then the tropical wave would be classified as a tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada

Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada on Monday afternoon. A tropical wave formerly designated as Invest 94L was redesignated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was located at latitude 8.6°N and longitude 50.9°W which put it about 720 miles (1155 km) east of Trinidad. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Trinidad and Tobago, and Grenada and its dependencies.

A NOAA aircraft investigated former Invest 94L on Monday afternoon. The plane was unable to find a distinct low level center of circulation, but it did find winds to tropical storm force. Since there was no distinct low level center of circulation, the system was still considered to be a tropical wave. There was a broad area of counterclockwise rotation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The winds in the southern side of the system were blowing at less than tropical storm force. There were mostly showers and lower clouds near the center of the broad rotation. Thunderstorms were occurring in the western and northern parts of the tropical wave. The southern and eastern parts of the wave contained showers and lower clouds.

The tropical wave will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave toward the west. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday night.

The tropical wave will move through an environment that is favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. The wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the winds in the troposphere will blow from the east at most levels and there will be little vertical wind shear. The circulation around the tropical wave could gradually become more organized during the next few days. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two could become a tropical storm before it reaches Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada. Even if the system is still a tropical wave, it will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Windward Islands. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two could also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela.

Tropical Depression Two Strengthens to Tropical Storm Bill

Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened to Tropical Storm Bill east-northeast of Cape Hatteras on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located at latitude 36.7°N and longitude 69.8°W which put it about 335 miles (540 km) east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Bill was moving toward the northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Two intensified on Monday night and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Bill. Even though the circulation around Bill was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Bill. Bands on the western side of Bill consisted mainly of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Bill. The wind was blowing at less than tropical storm force in the other quadrants of Bill. An upper level trough east of the Great Lakes was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Bill. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were the cause of the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Bill will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bill will move over the warmer water in the Gulf Stream where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C on Tuesday. However, the upper level trough east of the Great Lakes will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Bill could intensify a little more on Tuesday, but the wind shear is likely to increase by Tuesday night.

The upper level trough east of the Great Lakes will steer Tropical Storm Bill rapidly toward the northeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bill will pass southeast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Bill could approach southeast Newfoundland on Tuesday night.