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Typhoon Mitag Passing Just East of China

Typhoon Mitag was passing just to the east of China on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Mitag was located at latitude 27.7°N and longitude 122.2°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) south-southeast of Shanghai, China.  Mitag was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Typhoon Mitag began to weaken later on Monday.  An upper level  trough over eastern Asia was producing southerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The circulation around Mitag was drawing drier air from Asia into the southern and western parts of the typhoon.  There was still an eye at the center of Typhoon Mitag.  However the ring of strong thunderstorms around the eye weakened.  The stronger bands of showers and thunderstorms were in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center.

Typhoon Mitag will likely to continue to weaken during the next several days.  The upper level trough will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The circulation around Mitag will also continue to draw drier air from Asia into the typhoon.  Typhoon Mitag will continue to weaken slowly and it could weaken to a tropical storm  within 24 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Typhoon Mitag toward the north-northeast during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Mitag will turn more toward the northeast in a day or so.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Mitag will pass to the east of Ningbo and Shanghai.  Mitag could approach South Korea in about 36 hours.  It will likely be a tropical storm by that time, but Mitag could drop locally heavy rain over South Korea.

Typhoon Mitag Nears Northeast Taiwan

Typhoon Mitag moved nearer to northeastern Taiwan on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Mitag was located near latitude 22.3°N and longitude 122.7°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Mitag was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Mitag strengthened into a typhoon on Sunday.  A circular eye appeared at the center of Typhoon Mitag on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms.  There were some breaks in the ring of storms, but the strongest winds were occurring in the ring.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mitag.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 185 miles (295 km) from the center.

Typhoon Mitag will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Mitag will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are not too strong and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Mitag could strengthen on Monday if the center of circulation does not pass over northeastern Taiwan.  If the center of Mitag does move over Taiwan, then the typhoon will weaken,

Typhoon Mitag will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Mitag toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Mitag will be near northeastern Taiwan within 12 hours.  Mitag could drop heavy rain over parts of Taiwan and flash floods are possible.  Rainbands in the eastern side of the typhoon will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands.  Typhoon Mitag could approach the east coast of China near Taizhou in about 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Podul Forms East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Podul formed east of Luzon on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Podul was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 125.2°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east of Baler, Philippines.  Podul was moving a little to the north of due west at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low level center of circulation in an area of thunderstorms east of Luzon was visible in satellite imagery on Monday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Podul.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Podul was not well organized.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in broken bands west of the center of circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of Podul consisted primarily showers and lower clouds.  Tropical Storm Podul was moving south of an upper level ridge over eastern Asia and the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge was producing easterly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear was contributing to the poorly organized circulation around Podul.

Tropical Storm Podul will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours,  Podul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The center will move across northern Luzon and increased friction will weaken the circulation.  Tropical Storm Podul could weaken to a tropical depression when it crosses Luzon.  Podul could strengthen in the middle of the week when it moves west of Luzon and out over the South China Sea.

Tropical Storm Podul will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Podul a little to the north of due west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Podul will move across northern Luzon on Tuesday. Podul will cause gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  The rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm Podul will move west of Luzon and over the South China Sea in about 24 hours.  Podul could approach Hainan Island in about 72 hours.

Tropical Storm Bailu Makes Landfall in Eastern China

Tropical Storm Bailu made landfall on the east coast of China on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bailu was located at latitude 24.3°N and longitude 116.4°E which put it about 10 miles west of Dabu, China.  Bailu was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Bailu made landfall on the east coast of China near Yunxiao on Saturday night.  The northern half of Bailu passed over Taiwan earlier on Saturday and the rainbands in that half of the tropical storm weakened after they passed over the mountains on Taiwan.  The heaviest rain was falling in the southern half of Tropical Storm Bailu.  Bailu will continue to move toward the west-northwest and it will weaken when it goes farther inland.  Tropical Storm Bailu will drop heavy rain over parts of Guangdong and Fujian.  It could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Bailu Brings Wind and Rain to Taiwan

Tropical Storm Bailu brought wind and rain to Taiwan early on Saturday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bailu was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 120.2°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) northwest of Hengchun, Taiwan.  Bailu was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

The broad center of Tropical Storm Bailu moved across southern Taiwan early on Saturday.  Bailu produced winds to tropical storm force over parts of Taiwan, but its greater effect was heavy rain.  Since Tropical Storm Bailu passed near the southern end of Taiwan, its counterclockwise rotation produced easterly winds over much of Taiwan.  Those winds pushed air up the mountains, which enhanced rising motion and caused heavy rain to fall over eastern Taiwan.  Estimates of rainfall from radars indicated that up to one foot (300 mm) of rain could have fallen over southeastern Taiwan.  That much rain is likely to have caused flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Bailu will continue to move southwest of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will continue to steer Bailu toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Bailu will make landfall on the east coast of China between Xiamen and Shantou in about 12 hours.  Bailu will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of eastern China.  Heavy rain could also produce flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Bailu on Track Toward Taiwan

Tropical Storm Bailu remained on a track toward Taiwan on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bailu was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 125.6°E which put it about 385 miles (615 km) east-southeast of Hengchun, Taiwan.  Bailu was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Bailu was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 170 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms in Bailu were occurring in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Tropical Storm Bailu was moving south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge was causing sinking motion to the north of Bailu which appeared to be limiting the development of taller thunderstorms in the northern half of the circulation.

Aside from the sinking motion north of Tropical Storm Bailu, it will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Bailu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are not too strong and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Bailu could intensify on Friday if more thunderstorms develop around the center of circulation.  There is a chance that Bailu could strengthen into a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Bailu will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Bailu toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bailu could approach southern Taiwan in about 24 hours.  Bailu could be a typhoon by that time.  It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Taiwan.  The locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Bailu Forms East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Bailu formed east of Luzon on Wednesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Bailu was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 131.6°E which put it about 930 miles (1500 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Bailu was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system east of northern Luzon strengthened on Wednesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Bailu.  The circulation around Bailu was gradually exhibiting greater organization.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming and the bands were starting to revolve around the center of the tropical storm.  There were more thunderstorms in the bands on the western side of Tropical Storm Bailu.  Storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Bailu.

Tropical Storm Bailu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next two to three days.  Bailu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move southeast of an upper level ridge that extends from eastern Asia over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Bailu will intensify during the next several days and it could strengthen into a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Bailu will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Bailu in a northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bailu could approach Taiwan in about 72 hours.  Bailu could be a typhoon by that time.  Bands on the western side of Tropical Storm Bailu could drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Luzon.  Flash floods could occur in some locations.

Tropical Storm Krosa Moves Toward Japan

Tropical Storm Krosa moved toward Japan on Sunday after stalling south of Iwo To for several days.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Krosa was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 137.5°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) west of Iwo To.  Krosa was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Tropical Storm Krosa mixed significant amounts of cooler water to the surface during the days when it was nearly stationary south of Iwo To.  The cooler ware contained less energy and the atmosphere became more stable.  Thunderstorms around the core of the circulation dissipated and the storms in many of the rainbands also weakened.  Some thunderstorms persisted in outer rainbands.  Even though the maximum wind speed decreased, the size of the circulation increased.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 280 miles (455 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Krosa will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Krosa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C after it gets away from the cooler water mixed to the surface.  It will move through a region where there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Krosa will intensify slowly at first because it lacks a strong inner core.  If more thunderstorms develop near the center of circulation, then Krosa could strengthen more quickly.  It is possible that thunderstorms do not form at  the center of circulation and if that happens, Krosa could develop into a typhoon with a very large eye at the center.

Tropical Storm Krosa will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Krosa toward the northwest during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Krosa could approach southwestern Japan within 72 hours.  Krosa is likely to be a large typhoon by that time.

Elsewhere of over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Lekima continue to bring wind and rain to parts of northeastern China.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Lekima was located at latitude 37.8°N and longitude 119.6°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) south-southeast of Tangshan, China.  Lekima was moving toward the north- northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Damaging Tropical Storm Lekima Moves Up East Coast of China

Damaging Tropical Storm Lekima moved up the east coast of China on Saturday.  Although former Typhoon Lekima weakened to a tropical storm, there were reports that it caused deaths, damage and floods in eastern China.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Lekima was located at latitude 34.3°N and longitude 120.5°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) south of Qingdao, China.  Lekima was moving toward the north at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Former Typhoon Lekima made landfall south of Shanghai and then it moved northward over eastern China.  Lekima dropped heavy rain over areas near the east coast of China.  The heavy rain caused flooding in some locations.  Tropical Storm Lekima weakened on Saturday, but it continued to drop heavy rain on the coastal region north of Shanghai.  A portion of the circulation was still over the Yellow Sea and the strongest winds were occurring in rainbands over water.  Tropical Storm Lekima will continue to move northward and weaken on Sunday, but it still has the potential to cause additional flooding.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Krosa finally started to move northwestward near Iwo To.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Krosa was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 139.9°E which put it about 140 miles (230 km) southwest of Iwo To.  Krosa was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Typhoon Krosa mixed cooler water to the surface while it was stationary south of Iwo To.  The cooler water didn’t provide enough energy to maintain the inner core of Krosa which weakened significantly.  Typhoon Krosa could strengthen when it moves away from the cooler water.  However, the lack of a well formed inner core will limit the rate of intensification.  Krosa will move around the western part of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer the typhoon toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Krosa could approach the large islands of Japan in about four days.

Typhoon Lekima Makes Landfall in China

Typhoon Lekima made landfall in China about 200 miles (320 km) south of Shanghai on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Lekima was located at latitude 28.8°N and longitude 121.2°E which put it about 195 miles (315 km) south of Shanghai, China.  Lekima was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h.  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

The inner eye of Typhoon Lekima made landfall on the east coast of China in Zhejiang province about 200 miles (320 km) south of Shanghai on Friday.  Lekima was the the equivalent of a large, major hurricane at the time of landfall.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 230 miles  (370 km) from the center.  Typhoon Lekima continued to exhibit two concentric eyewalls at the time of landfall.  The strongest winds were occurring around the small inner eye, but winds to typhoon force were also occurring in the large outer eyewall.  The double eyewall structure contributed to the large circulation around Lekima.

Typhoon Lekima will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Lekima a little to the west of due north.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Lekima will remain inland, but it will also stay near the coast.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Lekima will pass just to the west of Shanghai in 18 to 24 hours.  Lekima will weaken slowly while it moves northward.  The large size of the circulation and the fact that a portion of the circulation will remain over the Yellow Sea will lengthen the time it takes for the circulation to spin down.  Lekima is likely to be a tropical storm by the time the center nears Shanghai.  Typhoon Lekima will bring gusty winds and drop locally heavy rain over Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shandong provinces.  Flash flooding is likely in places that receive prolonged heavy rain.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Krosa remained stalled south of Iwo To.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Krosa was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 141.3°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) south of Iwo To.  Krosa was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.  Typhoon Krosa has been nearly stationary long enough to mix cooler water to the surface, which is why it weakened during the past 24 hours.  Krosa is forecast to move toward Iwo To during the next 24 to 36 hours.