Tropical Storm Karen developed near the Windward Islands on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 60.9°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) east-southeast of Grenada. Karen was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.
Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, and for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
A center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms east of the axis of a strong tropical wave near the Windward Islands on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Karen. The strongest thunderstorms were forming in bands south and west of the center of circulation. Bands north and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (200 km) on the eastern side of the tropical storm.
An upper level trough northeast of the Lesser Antilles was producing strong westerly winds which were blowing across the northern side of Tropical Storm Karen. An upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea was producing strong northeasterly winds which were blowing across the western part of Karen. The upper level winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear which was inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in those parts of Tropical Storm Karen. The center of circulation developed in a region between the stronger upper level westerly and northeasterly winds. Most of the thunderstorms were forming in that area where the upper level winds were not as strong.
Tropical Storm Karen will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next day or two. Karen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. However, the upper level trough and upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. If Tropical Storm Karen remains in the zone where the upper level winds are not as strong, it could strengthen. However, if Karen moves under stronger upper level winds, it could weaken to a depression. Tropical Storm Karen is forecast to move closer to the center of the upper level ridge in two or three days. If that happens, then the upper level winds will be weaker and Karen could intensify.
Tropical Storm Karen will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Karen toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours. Karen will move more toward the north when reaches the end of the ridge. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Karen will move across the Windward Islands on Sunday. Karen will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Flash floods are likely. Tropical Storm Karen could approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Watches are likely to be issued for those islands.
Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Storm Jerry was spinning south of Bermuda. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 66.9°W which put it about 520 miles (835 km) south-southwest of Bermuda. Jerry was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.
Tropical Storm Kirk redeveloped east of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday morning and Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches were issued for some of those islands. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 54.3°W which put it about 360 miles (575 km) east-southeast of Barbados. Kirk was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.
Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Barbados, St. Lucia, Dominica, Martinique and Guadeloupe. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicated that former Tropical Storm Kirk had weakened to a tropical wave on Monday and NHC ceased issuing advisories on the system. The remnants of former Tropical Storm Kirk moved quickly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. More thunderstorms began developing in the system on Tuesday. NHC determined that sufficient thunderstorms had formed near the center of circulation by Wednesday morning to reclassify the system as a tropical cyclone and it started issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kirk again.
A cluster of strong thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Kirk. Thunderstorms were also forming in several bands which were revolving around the center of circulation. Thunderstorms near the core of Kirk were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.
Tropical Storm Kirk will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Kirk will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are not too strong. There will be some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification in the short term. When Tropical Storm Kirk moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea, it will encounter stronger westerly winds and the vertical wind shear will increase.
Tropical Storm Kirk will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Kirk on a path a little north of due west. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kirk could be near Barbados on Thursday morning. Kirk could reach the Lesser Antilles later on Thursday. Tropical Storm Kirk will bring gusty winds and it could drop locally heavy rain.
A reconnaissance plane found that a center of circulation and winds to tropical storm force had developed in a tropical wave previously designated as Invest 91L and Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Based on data collected by the recon plane the National Hurricane Center named the system Tropical Storm Harvey on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 55.8°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east of Barbados. Harvey was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Martinique, Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and St. Lucia. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Dominica.
The circulation of Tropical Storm Harvey became better organized on Thursday. A low level center of circulation developed and bands of showers and thunderstorms began to revolve around the center. Intermittent bursts of thunderstorms occurred near and to the west of the center of circulation. The circulation of Tropical Storm Harvey is asymmetrical. Most of the stronger thunderstorms are occurring in the western half of the circulation. The bands in the eastern half of the circulation consist primarily of showers and low clouds. Thunderstorms near the core of Harvey were generating some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.
Tropical Storm Harvey will be moving through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification. Harvey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level ridge northeast of Puerto Rico is producing northeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Harvey. Those winds are producing moderate vertical wind shear which is probably the cause of the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Tropical Storm Harvey is likely to get better organized on Friday and it could strengthen. The intensity guidance is mixed. Some guidance forecasts that Harvey will become a hurricane as it moves over the Caribbean Sea, while other guidance weaken the tropical storm back to a tropical wave. So far, the guidance has underpredicted the strength of Tropical Storm Harvey and so strengthen would seem more likely.
Tropical Storm Harvey is being steered quickly toward the west by the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean. A general westerly or west-northwesterly track is forecast for the next few days. On its anticipate track Tropical Storm Harvey could reach Barbados in about 12 hours. Harvey could also reach Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines on Friday. Tropical Storm Harvey will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to those islands when it moves over them.