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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forms East of Leeward Islands

A small area of low pressure east of the Leeward Islands displayed increased organization today and a reconnaissance plane found that it had winds to tropical storm force.  Based on that information the National Hurricane Center classified the low as Tropical Storm Gonzalo.  At 1:30 p.m. EDT the center of Gonzalo was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 58.4°W which put it about 200 miles east of Guadaloupe and about 230 miles east-southeast of Antigua.  Gonzalo was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Guadaloupe, Les Saintes, Maria Galante, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St. Maartin, Saba, St. Eustatius, Barbuda, Antigua, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.

Gonzalo is begin steered westward by a subtropical high pressure system located north of it.  Gonzalo is likely to continue moving westward for another day or so until it nears the western end of the subtropical high.  At that point it is likely to turn more toward the northwest and then eventually start moving northward.  The numerical models are currently predicting that a large trough over the western U.S. will move eastward and turn Gonzalo toward the northeast as it moves north of Puerto Rico.

Gonzalo is currently experiencing some shear from the west.  However, it is over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  So, intensification is likely.  Gonzalo is a small tropical storm and small tropical cyclones can intensify or weaken more rapidly than larger storms.   A period of rapid intensification is possible if the shear diminishes a little more.   Gonzalo could become a hurricane before it gets to Puerto Rico.

 

Tropical Cyclone Hudhud Poses Threat to India

A tropical cyclone has formed over the eastern Bay of Bengal and it poses a potential threat to the eastern portion of India.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Cyclone Hudhud was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 89.6°E, which put it about 625 miles south-southwest of Chittagong in Bangladesh and about 520 miles east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.  Hudhud was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 75 m.p.h.

An upper level high located northeast of Hudhud is generating northeasterly winds over the top of the circulation of Hudhud.  Those winds are producing wind shear, which is the main factor limiting the intensification of the tropical cyclone.  At the same time the winds are also enhancing outflow on the western side of the tropical cyclone, which is allowing for it to slowly become better organized.  Some of the guidance suggests that the wind shear will decrease as Hudhud moves farther west and intensification is possible before it makes landfall in India.

Clockwise flow around the upper level high is also steering Hudhud toward the west-northwest and it is expected to continue to travel in the direction for the next few days.  If it maintains its current forward motion, Hudhud will approach the eastern coast of India in about 48-72 hours.  It could make landfall near Visakhapatnam during the weekend.

 

Tropical Storm Watch Issued for Part of Baja California

Although Tropical Storm Simon is moving over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) its circulation is spinning down more slowly than originally anticipated.  As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast of Baja California that extends from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located at latitude 25.8°N and longitude 117.4°W, which put it about 200 miles southwest of Punta Eugenia.  Simon was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles from the center of circulation, which placed them within 80 miles from the coast of Baja California.

Strong southwesterly winds in the upper levels are generating wind shear over the top of Simon.  In addition, it is over cooler SSTs.  The shear and cooler water will continue to weaken Simon.   There is slightly warmer water near the coast of Baja California, which could maintain the circulation long enough for it to make landfall.  Simon is expected to move northeastward toward Baja California and it could possible bring tropical storm force winds to some portions of the coast.  The moisture associated with Simon will also bring an enhanced chance for rain and some areas could get locally heavy rainfall.

 

Hurricane Odile Intensifying Rapidly

Hurricane Odile is intensifying rapidly and it is very close to reaching Major Hurricane status.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Odile was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 116.1°W which put it about 165 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 410 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Odile is moving more quickly now and it was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 110 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

As the upper level wind shear decreased over Odile, it entered a period of rapid intensification.  Odile is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and it is likely to reach Major Hurricane status on Sunday.  The size of the circulation around Odile has also increased and hurricane force winds extend outward an average of 35 miles from the center.

Odile has begun to move more quickly and it has been moving more northward than northwestward.  This motion has brought it closer to the coast and it has also caused the model guidance to shift the forecast track closer to the southern tip of Baja California.  The change in the predicted track of Odile prompted the government of Mexico to issue new watches and warnings.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro southward to the southern tip of Baja California and then northward to La Paz.  Hurricane Watches have been issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro northward to Puerto San Andresito and from La Paz northward to Loreto.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Loreto.  The Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the portion of the coast from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos and from Loreto to Mulege.

 

Hurricane Norbert a little stronger

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Norbert was little stronger than was estimated based on satellite imagery.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Norbert was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 110.6°W which put it about 150 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Norbert has been moving somewhat erratically, but the estimated motion was toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h.  The aircraft found that the maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Norbert is expected to move generally toward the northwest during the next several days and to move roughly parallel to the west coast of Baja California.  Although the center is expected to remain offshore, winds to tropical storm force may reach parts of Baja California.  For that reason a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast that extends from La Paz southward to the southern tip of Baja California and then northward to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the portions of the coast from La Paz northward to San Evaristo and from Cabo San Lazaro northward to Puerto San Andresito.

The eye appears to be becoming more evident on visible satellite images.  There is some upper level shear from the northeast, but some additional intensification is possible during the next 24 hours.  When Norbert begins to move west of Baja California it will move over a very strong gradient of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) toward colder water.  It will move from SSTs near 30°C to SSTs near 23°C.  The colder SSTs will greatly reduce the energy available to drive the circulation.  In addition, the atmosphere tends to be quite stable over the cooler SSTs, which will further inhibit convection and help to spin down the circulation.

Where the wind direction creates a flow up the slopes of mountains, locally heavy rainfall could occur and the potential for flooding exists in some locations.  Southerly flow around the eastern side of Norbert’s weakening circulation could transport moisture into portions of the southwestern U.S.