Hurricane Odile is intensifying rapidly and it is very close to reaching Major Hurricane status.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Odile was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 116.1°W which put it about 165 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 410 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Odile is moving more quickly now and it was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 110 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

As the upper level wind shear decreased over Odile, it entered a period of rapid intensification.  Odile is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and it is likely to reach Major Hurricane status on Sunday.  The size of the circulation around Odile has also increased and hurricane force winds extend outward an average of 35 miles from the center.

Odile has begun to move more quickly and it has been moving more northward than northwestward.  This motion has brought it closer to the coast and it has also caused the model guidance to shift the forecast track closer to the southern tip of Baja California.  The change in the predicted track of Odile prompted the government of Mexico to issue new watches and warnings.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro southward to the southern tip of Baja California and then northward to La Paz.  Hurricane Watches have been issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro northward to Puerto San Andresito and from La Paz northward to Loreto.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Loreto.  The Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the portion of the coast from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos and from Loreto to Mulege.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Norbert was little stronger than was estimated based on satellite imagery.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Norbert was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 110.6°W which put it about 150 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Norbert has been moving somewhat erratically, but the estimated motion was toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h.  The aircraft found that the maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Norbert is expected to move generally toward the northwest during the next several days and to move roughly parallel to the west coast of Baja California.  Although the center is expected to remain offshore, winds to tropical storm force may reach parts of Baja California.  For that reason a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast that extends from La Paz southward to the southern tip of Baja California and then northward to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the portions of the coast from La Paz northward to San Evaristo and from Cabo San Lazaro northward to Puerto San Andresito.

The eye appears to be becoming more evident on visible satellite images.  There is some upper level shear from the northeast, but some additional intensification is possible during the next 24 hours.  When Norbert begins to move west of Baja California it will move over a very strong gradient of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) toward colder water.  It will move from SSTs near 30°C to SSTs near 23°C.  The colder SSTs will greatly reduce the energy available to drive the circulation.  In addition, the atmosphere tends to be quite stable over the cooler SSTs, which will further inhibit convection and help to spin down the circulation.

Where the wind direction creates a flow up the slopes of mountains, locally heavy rainfall could occur and the potential for flooding exists in some locations.  Southerly flow around the eastern side of Norbert’s weakening circulation could transport moisture into portions of the southwestern U.S.