Category Archives: Eastern and Central Pacific

TCs between Mexico and Hawaii

Tropical Storms Karina and Lowell and the Fujiwhara Effect

I am sometimes asked what happens when two tropical cyclones get close to each other.  The answer depends on the relative size and intensity of the two systems and how close they come to each other.  The Fujiwhara Effect is the name given to the tracks taken by the two vorticies.  If the two tropical cyclones are of nearly equal size and intensity, then they tend to move cyclonically around a center of rotation that is roughly half way between them.  If one cyclone is much bigger and stronger, then the center of rotation is shifted toward the bigger and stronger cyclone.

Tropical Storm Lowell has a large circulation and a maximum sustained wind speed of around 50 m.p.h.  Tropical Storm Karina is located about 700 miles to the west-southwest of Lowell.  Karina has a much smaller circulation and it also has a maximum sustained wind speed of 50 m.p.h.  Some of the models are forecasting that the two tropical storms will rotate around a point closer to Lowell than to Karina (i.e. the Fujiwara Effect).  This would result in Lowell moving general west-northwest and pass to the north of Karina.  The larger circulation of Lowell could also pull Karina back toward the east-northeast as Karina passes south of Lowell.  It is also possible that the circulation of Lowell could be so big that it captures Karina and Karina eventually gets absorbed by Lowell.

 

Julio becomes a hurricane again

An eye developed in Julio and it has been upgraded to hurricane status.  Even though Julio is located 600 miles north of Hawaii, it is over Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) that are warm enough to support a hurricane.  The upper level winds around Julio are light enough to allow for Julio to maintain a warm core.  Eventually, wind shear should increase and cooler SSTs will likely weaken Julio back to a tropical storm.

A new tropical depression has formed west of Mexico.  Tropical Depression Eleven-E (TD11E) is about 385 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 400 miles south of the southern tip of Baja, California.  it is moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h.  It is expected to intensify and if it becomes a tropical storm its name will be Karina.  Some numerical models are showing that it could eventually move in the general direction of Hawaii.