Monthly Archives: May 2022

Tropical Cyclone Asani Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Asani intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Asani was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 88.3°E which put it about 750 miles (1215 km) south of Kolkata, India. Asani was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Former Tropical Cyclone 02B intensified on Sunday morning and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Asani. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southwest of the center of Asani’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Asani. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Asani. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Asani will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Asani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Asani is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Asani will move toward a mass of drier air when it moves closer to India in a day or two.

Tropical Cyclone Asani will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer Asani toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Asani will move toward the east coast of India. Asani could be southeast of Visakhapatnam in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Karim Strengthens West-northwest of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Karim strengthened over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of Cocos Island on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Karim was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 90.3°E which put it about 465 miles (750 km) west-northwest of Cocos Island. Karim was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Karim exhibited much more organization on Sunday morning as it strengthened over the South Indian Ocean. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Karim’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Karim.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Karim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce north-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Karim’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to stop Karim from intensifying. Tropical Cyclone Karim is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Karim toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Karim will pass west of Cocos Island during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 02B Develops over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone 02B developed over the Bay of Bengal southwest of Port Blair on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone 02B was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 90.9°E which put it about 165 miles (265 km) southwest of Port Blair, Andaman Islands. Tropical Cyclone 02B was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the eastern Bay of Bengal strengthened on Saturday morning and the center was designated as Tropical Cyclone 02B. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone 02B. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 02B will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone 02B will intensify during the next 36 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone 02B will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 02B will move slowly away from the Andaman Islands and the Nicobar Islands. The tropical cyclone will continue to drop locally heavy rain over the Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Islands until it moves farther northwest of those areas. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Karim Forms over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Karim formed over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of Cocos Island on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Karim was located at latitude 8.0°S and longitude 89.6°E which put it about 585 miles (945 km) west-northwest of Cocos Island. Karim was moving toward the southeast at 8 m.p.h (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of Cocos Island strengthened on Saturday morning and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Karim. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Karim’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Karim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce north-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Karim’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to stop Karim from intensifying. Tropical Cyclone Karim is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Karim toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Karim will pass west of Cocos Island in 48 hours.

Low Pressure System Forms over Eastern Bay of Bengal

A low pressure system formed over the eastern Bay of Bengal near the Nicobar Islands on Friday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of a low pressure system was located at latitude 8.6°N and longitude 92.5°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Malacca, Nicobar Islands and about 205 miles (330 km) south of Port Blair, Andaman Islands. The low pressure system was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A surface low pressure system, also designated as Invest 92B, formed over the eastern Bay of Bengal near the Nicobar Islands on Friday morning. The circulation around the low pressure system exhibited more organization on conventional and microwave satellite images. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band just to the west of the center of the low pressure system. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the low pressure system. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. The low pressure system will strengthen during the next 24 hours and it could intensify to a tropical cyclone during the weekend.

The low pressure system will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the low pressure system will move slowly away from the Nicobar Islands. The low pressure system will drop locally heavy rain over the Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Islands. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.