Tropical Cyclone Emnati Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon northeast of Mauritius on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 60.9°E which put it about 475 miles (765 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Mauritius on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were blowing in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 36 hours. Emnati could intensify more rapidly now that an inner core with an eye and an eyewall have formed. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Mauritius in 30 hours. Emnati could pass north of La Reunion in 60 hours. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in four days.