Tropical Cyclone Fabien weakened over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia during Wednesday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 71.7°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien weakened to the equivalent of a tropical storm as it passed south of Diego Garcia during Wednesday night. The clockwise circulation around Fabien continued to pull drier air into the western side of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fabien consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Fabien’s circulation and in bands in the eastern side of the tropical cyclone. The thunderstorms near the center of Fabien still were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, southerly winds in the western side of Fabien’s circulation will continue to pull drier air into the tropical cyclone. In addition, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The drier air and vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Fabien to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move southwest of Diego Garcia during the next 24 hours.