Tropical Cyclone Fabien moved southeast of Diego Garcia on Wednesday morning. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 9.0°S and longitude 73.6°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien began to show signs of weakening on Wednesday morning. The clockwise circulation around Fabien was pulling drier air into the western side of the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fabien were weakening. Some bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The former circular eye was no longer visible on satellite images. There were still bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of Fabien’s circulation. Thunderstorms on the eastern side of Fabien still were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Fabien’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fabien was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.5. Tropical Cyclone Fabien was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, southerly winds in the western side of Fabien’s circulation will continue to pull drier air into the tropical cyclone. In addition, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The drier air and vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Fabien to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien will pass south of Diego Garcia during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fabien more toward the west later this week. Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move southwest of Diego Garcia on Thursday.