Tropical Cyclone Fabien strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east of Diego Garcia on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 7.6°S and longitude 74.8°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) east of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Diego Garcia on Tuesday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was present at the center of Fabien’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fabien. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fabien’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fabien was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0. Tropical Cyclone Fabien was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western side of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Fabien could continue to intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move southeast of Diego Garcia during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fabien more toward the west later this week. The center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien could be south of Diego Garcia in 36 hours.