Tag Archives: Fabien

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Moves Southwest of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Fabien moved southwest of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 10.2°S and longitude 69.6°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) southwest of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien was maintaining its intensity on Friday morning as it moved southwest of Diego Garcia, but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern quadrant of Fabien’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Fabien consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Drier air had wrapped around the western and northern sides of Fabien’s circulation and the drier air was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Storms in the southeastern quadrant of Fabien still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Fabien. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the southern half of Fabien.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment that will become a little more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear will decrease. The drier air in the western and northern parts of Tropical Cyclone Fabien will continue to inhibit intensification. Even with the effects of the drier air, Tropical Cyclone Fabien could intensify during the next 24 hours when the wind shear decreases.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien slowly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move farther away from Diego Garcia. Fabien is likely to move toward the south during the weekend when it moves around the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Weakens South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Fabien weakened over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia during Wednesday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 71.7°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien weakened to the equivalent of a tropical storm as it passed south of Diego Garcia during Wednesday night. The clockwise circulation around Fabien continued to pull drier air into the western side of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fabien consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Fabien’s circulation and in bands in the eastern side of the tropical cyclone. The thunderstorms near the center of Fabien still were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, southerly winds in the western side of Fabien’s circulation will continue to pull drier air into the tropical cyclone. In addition, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The drier air and vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Fabien to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move southwest of Diego Garcia during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Moves Southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Fabien moved southeast of Diego Garcia on Wednesday morning. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 9.0°S and longitude 73.6°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien began to show signs of weakening on Wednesday morning. The clockwise circulation around Fabien was pulling drier air into the western side of the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fabien were weakening. Some bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The former circular eye was no longer visible on satellite images. There were still bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of Fabien’s circulation. Thunderstorms on the eastern side of Fabien still were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Fabien’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fabien was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.5. Tropical Cyclone Fabien was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, southerly winds in the western side of Fabien’s circulation will continue to pull drier air into the tropical cyclone. In addition, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The drier air and vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Fabien to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien will pass south of Diego Garcia during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fabien more toward the west later this week. Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move southwest of Diego Garcia on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Fabien strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east of Diego Garcia on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 7.6°S and longitude 74.8°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) east of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Diego Garcia on Tuesday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was present at the center of Fabien’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fabien. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fabien’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fabien was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0. Tropical Cyclone Fabien was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western side of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Fabien could continue to intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move southeast of Diego Garcia during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fabien more toward the west later this week. The center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien could be south of Diego Garcia in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Fabien rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 5.4°S and longitude 7°9.0E which put it about 490 miles (790 km) east-northeast of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

After it strengthened to a tropical cyclone on Sunday morning, Tropical Cyclone Fabien rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by Sunday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fabien’s circulation. A small circular eye was forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Fabien’s circulation. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Fabien. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Fabien will intensity during the next 36 hours. Fabien is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fabien could pass near Diego Garcia in 48 hours. Fabien is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it passes near Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Forms over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Fabien formed over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 4.7°S and longitude 81.7°E which put it about 690 miles (1110 km) east-northeast of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean east-northeast of Diego Garcia strengthened on Sunday morning and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Fabien. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien exhibited more organization on Sunday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fabien’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Fabien will intensity during the next 48 hours. Fabien is forecast to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fabien could pass near Diego Garcia in two or three days. Fabien is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it passes near Diego Garcia.